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Club Tijuana vs Cruz Azul Prediction— Mexico - Liga MX

Apertura · Matchday 4 ·Monday, August 17, 2026, 03:00

Club Tijuana

PPG 2.11 · HOME

UPCOMING

Cruz Azul

PPG 1.92 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 2.8 puts the goal expectation above the line. Model probability 53.7% vs bookmaker-implied 55.6%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-06.0%0-16.1%0-23.1%0-31.1%0-4+0.3%1 1-010.7%1-110.9%1-25.6%1-31.9%1-4+0.6%2 2-09.6%2-19.8%2-25.0%2-31.7%2-4+0.5%3 3-05.8%3-15.9%3-23.0%3-31.0%3-4+0.3%4+ 4+-03.9%4+-14.0%4+-22.0%4+-30.7%4+-4+0.2%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 52.6% 31.3% 3.20 +68.3%

Draw 24.3% 28.6% 3.50 -9.0%

Away win 23.0% 47.6% 2.10 -31.0%

Over 2.5 53.7% 55.6% 1.80 -3.3%

Over 3.5 31.8% 33.3% 3.00 -4.6%

BTTS 53.1% 61.7% 1.62 -14.0%

Home O1.5 49.2% 38.2% 2.62 +28.9%

Away O1.5 31.4% 50.0% 2.00 -37.2%

League track record ↗

Based on 26 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 39%

O2.5 46%

BTTS 35%

Score Hit 39%

ROI -28.0%

Bet Hit 38%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 38%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)1.8 xG (away)1.0 BTTS prob53.1%

H 53% / xG 1.8-1.0 / O2.5 54% / BTTS 53%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 10.9%

#2 2–1 9.8%

#3 2–0 9.6%

#4 1–0 10.7%

#5 0–0 6.0%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Club Tijuana1.8

Cruz Azul1.0

COMBINED 2.8 xG → O2.5 PROB 53.7% · O3.5 PROB 31.8%

Form & verdict PPG

CLUB TIJUANA · PPG 2.11

CRUZ AZUL · PPG 1.92

✓ SOLID - Moderate edge + strong value

75%

MODERATE_HOME

xG gap +0.78 - moderate Home edge

Win probability 1X2

Club Tijuana (H) 52.6%

ODDS 3.20 · IMPLIED 31.3% EV +68.3%

Draw 24.3%

ODDS 3.50 · IMPLIED 28.6% EV -9.0%

Cruz Azul (A) 23.0%

ODDS 2.10 · IMPLIED 47.6% EV -31.0%

Match Preview & Prediction

Club Tijuana face Cruz Azul in Mexico - Liga MX on Monday, August 17, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Club Tijuana a 53% chance, the draw 24% and Cruz Azul 23%, so Club Tijuana are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.8 for Club Tijuana and 1.0 for Cruz Azul (2.8 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 54% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 53% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Club Tijuana are averaging 2.11 points per game versus 1.92 for Cruz Azul. The best value bet our model finds is H/O25, with an expected value of +73.9%.

Club Tijuana vs Cruz Azul Prediction— Mexico - Liga MX

Match Preview & Prediction

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