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Kuressaare vs Vaprus Prediction— Estonia - Meistriliiga

Regular Season - 8 ·Tuesday, April 21, 2026, 15:45

Kuressaare

PPG 2.00 · HOME

0 – 1

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · O2.5

Vaprus

PPG 0.00 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 4.5 puts the goal expectation well above the line.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-01.1%0-11.2%0-20.7%0-30.2%0-4+0.1%1 1-03.9%1-14.2%1-22.3%1-30.8%1-4+0.3%2 2-06.5%2-17.1%2-23.9%2-31.4%2-4+0.5%3 3-07.4%3-18.0%3-24.4%3-31.6%3-4+0.5%4+ 4+-014.8%4+-116.1%4+-28.8%4+-33.2%4+-4+1.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 80.6% 45.5% 2.20 +77.3%

Draw 11.2% 30.3% 3.30 -63.0%

Away win 8.2% 35.7% 2.80 -77.0%

Over 2.5 82.4% — — —

Over 3.5 65.4% — — —

BTTS 64.1% 63.7% 1.57 +0.6%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 42 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 57%

O2.5 64%

BTTS 57%

Score Hit 36%

ROI -14.4%

Bet Hit 57%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

4 – 1 82%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 0-1

xG (home)3.4 xG (away)1.1 BTTS prob64.1%

H 81% / xG 3.4-1.1 / O2.5 82% / BTTS 64%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 3–1 8.0%

#2 3–0 7.4%

#3 2–1 7.1%

#4 4–1 6.8%

#5 2–0 6.5%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Kuressaare3.4

Vaprus1.1

COMBINED 4.5 xG → O2.5 PROB 82.4% · O3.5 PROB 65.4%

Form & verdict PPG

KURESSAARE · PPG 2.00

VAPRUS · PPG 0.00

✓ SOLID - Moderate edge + strong value

40%

NEUTRAL

No PPG data

Win probability 1X2

Kuressaare (H) 80.6%

ODDS 2.20 · IMPLIED 45.5% EV +77.3%

Draw 11.2%

ODDS 3.30 · IMPLIED 30.3% EV -63.0%

Vaprus (A) 8.2%

ODDS 2.80 · IMPLIED 35.7% EV -77.0%

Match Preview & Prediction

Kuressaare face Vaprus in Estonia - Meistriliiga on Tuesday, April 21, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Kuressaare a 81% chance, the draw 11% and Vaprus 8%, so Kuressaare are favoured to win. Expected goals are 3.4 for Kuressaare and 1.1 for Vaprus (4.5 total). The most likely scoreline is 3-1. There is a 82% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 64% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Kuressaare are averaging 2.00 points per game versus 0.00 for Vaprus. The best value bet our model finds is a home win, with an expected value of +77.3%. This match finished 0-1.

Kuressaare vs Vaprus Prediction— Estonia - Meistriliiga

Match Preview & Prediction

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