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Deportes Temuco vs Recoleta Prediction— Chile - Liga de Ascenso

Matchday 21 ·Tuesday, August 18, 2026, 00:30

Deportes Temuco

PPG 1.00 · HOME

UPCOMING

Recoleta

PPG 1.22 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 3.4 puts the goal expectation well above the line. Model probability 63.3% vs bookmaker-implied 56.5% — a clear edge.

+12.0% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-03.2%0-14.5%0-23.2%0-31.5%0-4+0.7%1 1-06.6%1-19.2%1-26.5%1-33.0%1-4+1.4%2 2-06.7%2-19.3%2-26.5%2-33.1%2-4+1.5%3 3-04.5%3-16.3%3-24.4%3-32.1%3-4+1.0%4+ 4+-03.6%4+-15.1%4+-23.6%4+-31.7%4+-4+0.8%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 48.0% 48.8% 2.05 -1.6%

Draw 22.6% 29.4% 3.40 -13.9%

Away win 29.4% 31.3% 3.20 -3.5%

Over 2.5 63.3% 56.5% 1.77 +12.0%

Over 3.5 41.0% 33.9% 2.95 +20.9%

BTTS 61.6% 61.7% 1.62 -0.2%

Home O1.5 55.0% 51.8% 1.93 +6.2%

Away O1.5 42.6% 38.5% 2.60 +10.8%

League track record ↗

Based on 37 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 38%

O2.5 41%

BTTS 51%

Score Hit 51%

ROI -17.3%

Bet Hit 47%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 1 50%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)2.0 xG (away)1.4 BTTS prob61.6%

H 48% / xG 2.0-1.4 / O2.5 63% / BTTS 62%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 9.2%

#2 2–1 9.3%

#3 2–0 6.7%

#4 2–2 6.5%

#5 1–2 6.5%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Deportes Temuco2.0

Recoleta1.4

COMBINED 3.4 xG → O2.5 PROB 63.3% · O3.5 PROB 41.0%

Form & verdict PPG

DEPORTES TEMUCO · PPG 1.00

RECOLETA · PPG 1.22

✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage

75%

MODERATE_HOME

xG gap +0.62 - moderate Home edge

Win probability 1X2

Deportes Temuco (H) 48.0%

ODDS 2.05 · IMPLIED 48.8% EV -1.6%

Draw 22.6%

ODDS 3.40 · IMPLIED 29.4% EV -13.9%

Recoleta (A) 29.4%

ODDS 3.20 · IMPLIED 31.3% EV -3.5%

Match Preview & Prediction

Deportes Temuco face Recoleta in Chile - Liga de Ascenso on Tuesday, August 18, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Deportes Temuco a 48% chance, the draw 23% and Recoleta 29%, so Deportes Temuco are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.0 for Deportes Temuco and 1.4 for Recoleta (3.4 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 63% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 62% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Deportes Temuco are averaging 1.00 points per game versus 1.22 for Recoleta. The best value bet our model finds is over 3.5 goals, with an expected value of +20.9%.

Deportes Temuco vs Recoleta Prediction— Chile - Liga de Ascenso

Match Preview & Prediction

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