Today / Chile - Liga de Ascenso / Santiago Wanderers vs D. Puerto Montt

Santiago Wanderers vs D. Puerto Montt Prediction— Chile - Liga de Ascenso

Matchday 21 ·Sunday, August 16, 2026, 16:30

Santiago Wanderers

PPG 1.78 · HOME

UPCOMING

D. Puerto Montt

PPG 1.22 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Home

Model probability 53.3% vs bookmaker-implied 47.6% — a clear edge.

+11.9% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-07.5%0-16.1%0-22.5%0-30.7%0-4+0.2%1 1-013.4%1-110.8%1-24.4%1-31.2%1-4+0.3%2 2-011.9%2-19.6%2-23.9%2-31.1%2-4+0.3%3 3-07.0%3-15.7%3-22.3%3-30.6%3-4+0.1%4+ 4+-04.7%4+-13.8%4+-21.5%4+-30.4%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 53.3% 47.6% 2.10 +11.9%

Draw 24.4% 30.8% 3.25 -12.4%

Away win 22.2% 31.3% 3.20 -17.4%

Over 2.5 49.9% 48.8% 2.05 +2.3%

Over 3.5 28.7% 26.7% 3.75 +4.6%

BTTS 49.2% 55.6% 1.80 -11.4%

Home O1.5 49.2% 46.5% 2.15 +5.8%

Away O1.5 21.1% 33.3% 3.00 -22.0%

League track record ↗

Based on 32 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 34%

O2.5 38%

BTTS 50%

Score Hit 47%

ROI -11.4%

Bet Hit 50%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 0 28%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)1.8 xG (away)0.8 BTTS prob49.2%

H 53% / xG 1.8-0.8 / O2.5 50% / NoBTTS 49%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 10.8%

#2 2–0 11.9%

#3 1–0 13.4%

#4 2–1 9.6%

#5 0–0 7.5%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Santiago Wanderers1.8

D. Puerto Montt0.8

COMBINED 2.6 xG → O2.5 PROB 49.9% · O3.5 PROB 28.7%

Form & verdict PPG

SANTIAGO WANDERERS · PPG 1.78

D. PUERTO MONTT · PPG 1.22

✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage

75%

MODERATE_HOME

xG gap +0.97 - moderate Home edge

Win probability 1X2

Santiago Wanderers (H) 53.3%

ODDS 2.10 · IMPLIED 47.6% EV +11.9%

Draw 24.4%

ODDS 3.25 · IMPLIED 30.8% EV -12.4%

D. Puerto Montt (A) 22.2%

ODDS 3.20 · IMPLIED 31.3% EV -17.4%

Match Preview & Prediction

Santiago Wanderers face D. Puerto Montt in Chile - Liga de Ascenso on Sunday, August 16, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Santiago Wanderers a 53% chance, the draw 24% and D. Puerto Montt 22%, so Santiago Wanderers are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.8 for Santiago Wanderers and 0.8 for D. Puerto Montt (2.6 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 50% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 49% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Santiago Wanderers are averaging 1.78 points per game versus 1.22 for D. Puerto Montt. The best value bet our model finds is H/O25, with an expected value of +30.3%.

Santiago Wanderers vs D. Puerto Montt Prediction— Chile - Liga de Ascenso

Match Preview & Prediction

More Chile - Liga de Ascenso Predictions