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Deportes Iquique vs Deportes Copiapo Prediction— Chile - Liga de Ascenso

Matchday 20 ·Friday, August 14, 2026, 00:30

Deportes Iquique

PPG 1.56 · HOME

UPCOMING

Deportes Copiapo

PPG 1.11 · AWAY

// Model verdict

BTTS

Model probability 53.1% vs bookmaker-implied 59.9%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-07.4%0-17.7%0-24.0%0-31.4%0-4+0.4%1 1-011.7%1-112.0%1-26.2%1-32.1%1-4+0.7%2 2-09.1%2-19.4%2-24.9%2-31.7%2-4+0.5%3 3-04.8%3-14.9%3-22.5%3-30.9%3-4+0.3%4+ 4+-02.6%4+-12.7%4+-21.4%4+-30.5%4+-4+0.2%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 46.8% 55.6% 1.80 -15.8%

Draw 25.6% 29.0% 3.45 -7.0%

Away win 27.5% 25.6% 3.90 +4.3%

Over 2.5 49.9% 55.6% 1.80 -10.2%

Over 3.5 29.4% 33.3% 3.00 -7.1%

BTTS 53.1% 59.9% 1.67 -11.3%

Home O1.5 46.0% 55.6% 1.80 -17.2%

Away O1.5 31.7% 33.3% 3.00 -4.9%

League track record ↗

Based on 29 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 35%

O2.5 41%

BTTS 48%

Score Hit 48%

ROI -11.4%

Bet Hit 50%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 26%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)1.6 xG (away)1.0 BTTS prob53.1%

H 47% / xG 1.6-1.0 / O2.5 50% / BTTS 53%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 12.0%

#2 1–0 11.7%

#3 2–1 9.4%

#4 0–0 7.4%

#5 2–0 9.1%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Deportes Iquique1.6

Deportes Copiapo1.0

COMBINED 2.6 xG → O2.5 PROB 49.9% · O3.5 PROB 29.4%

Form & verdict PPG

DEPORTES IQUIQUE · PPG 1.56

DEPORTES COPIAPO · PPG 1.11

✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage | No clear value

75%

MODERATE_HOME

xG gap +0.53 - moderate Home edge

Win probability 1X2

Deportes Iquique (H) 46.8%

ODDS 1.80 · IMPLIED 55.6% EV -15.8%

Draw 25.6%

ODDS 3.45 · IMPLIED 29.0% EV -7.0%

Deportes Copiapo (A) 27.5%

ODDS 3.90 · IMPLIED 25.6% EV +4.3%

Match Preview & Prediction

Deportes Iquique face Deportes Copiapo in Chile - Liga de Ascenso on Friday, August 14, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Deportes Iquique a 47% chance, the draw 26% and Deportes Copiapo 28%, so Deportes Iquique are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.6 for Deportes Iquique and 1.0 for Deportes Copiapo (2.6 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 50% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 53% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Deportes Iquique are averaging 1.56 points per game versus 1.11 for Deportes Copiapo. The best value bet our model finds is A/O25, with an expected value of +4.4%.

Deportes Iquique vs Deportes Copiapo Prediction— Chile - Liga de Ascenso

Match Preview & Prediction

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