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Deportes Santa Cruz vs San Luis Prediction— Chile - Liga de Ascenso

Matchday 21 ·Monday, August 17, 2026, 22:00

Deportes Santa Cruz

PPG 0.89 · HOME

UPCOMING

San Luis

PPG 0.78 · AWAY

// Model verdict

BTTS

Model probability 60.3% vs bookmaker-implied 59.9% — a real, if thin, edge.

+0.7% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-04.6%0-16.6%0-24.8%0-32.3%0-4+1.2%1 1-07.5%1-110.9%1-27.8%1-33.8%1-4+1.9%2 2-06.1%2-18.9%2-26.4%2-33.1%2-4+1.5%3 3-03.3%3-14.8%3-23.5%3-31.7%3-4+0.8%4+ 4+-02.0%4+-12.9%4+-22.1%4+-31.0%4+-4+0.5%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 41.0% 45.5% 2.20 -9.8%

Draw 24.3% 30.3% 3.30 -11.9%

Away win 34.7% 34.5% 2.90 +0.6%

Over 2.5 58.5% 54.1% 1.85 +8.2%

Over 3.5 36.5% 31.3% 3.20 +16.8%

BTTS 60.3% 59.9% 1.67 +0.7%

Home O1.5 47.2% 47.6% 2.10 -0.9%

Away O1.5 42.6% 39.2% 2.55 +8.6%

League track record ↗

Based on 34 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 38%

O2.5 38%

BTTS 53%

Score Hit 47%

ROI -11.4%

Bet Hit 50%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 44%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)1.6 xG (away)1.4 BTTS prob60.3%

H 41% / xG 1.6-1.4 / O2.5 58% / BTTS 60%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 10.9%

#2 2–1 8.9%

#3 1–2 7.8%

#4 2–2 6.4%

#5 0–0 4.6%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Deportes Santa Cruz1.6

San Luis1.4

COMBINED 3.1 xG → O2.5 PROB 58.5% · O3.5 PROB 36.5%

Form & verdict PPG

DEPORTES SANTA CRUZ · PPG 0.89

SAN LUIS · PPG 0.78

✓ FAIR - Balanced matchup, limited value

60%

BALANCED

xG gap +0.19 - no reliable favorite, elevated draw risk

Win probability 1X2

Deportes Santa Cruz (H) 41.0%

ODDS 2.20 · IMPLIED 45.5% EV -9.8%

Draw 24.3%

ODDS 3.30 · IMPLIED 30.3% EV -11.9%

San Luis (A) 34.7%

ODDS 2.90 · IMPLIED 34.5% EV +0.6%

Match Preview & Prediction

Deportes Santa Cruz face San Luis in Chile - Liga de Ascenso on Monday, August 17, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Deportes Santa Cruz a 41% chance, the draw 24% and San Luis 35%, so Deportes Santa Cruz are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.6 for Deportes Santa Cruz and 1.4 for San Luis (3.1 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 59% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 60% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Deportes Santa Cruz are averaging 0.89 points per game versus 0.78 for San Luis. The best value bet our model finds is over 3.5 goals, with an expected value of +16.8%.

Deportes Santa Cruz vs San Luis Prediction— Chile - Liga de Ascenso

Match Preview & Prediction

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