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Deportes Copiapo vs Curico Unido Prediction— Chile - Liga de Ascenso

Matchday 21 ·Monday, August 17, 2026, 22:00

Deportes Copiapo

PPG 1.89 · HOME

UPCOMING

Curico Unido

PPG 0.89 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Home Over 1.5

Model probability 54.6% vs bookmaker-implied 50.0% — a real, if thin, edge.

+9.2% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-06.3%0-15.7%0-22.6%0-30.8%0-4+0.2%1 1-011.8%1-110.6%1-24.8%1-31.4%1-4+0.4%2 2-011.0%2-19.9%2-24.4%2-31.3%2-4+0.4%3 3-06.8%3-16.1%3-22.7%3-30.8%3-4+0.2%4+ 4+-04.8%4+-14.3%4+-21.9%4+-30.6%4+-4+0.2%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 53.3% 52.4% 1.91 +1.8%

Draw 24.4% 30.3% 3.30 -11.7%

Away win 22.2% 27.8% 3.60 -12.0%

Over 2.5 52.5% 51.3% 1.95 +2.4%

Over 3.5 31.3% 29.0% 3.45 +8.0%

BTTS 53.1% 56.5% 1.77 -6.0%

Home O1.5 54.6% 50.0% 2.00 +9.2%

Away O1.5 23.6% 32.3% 3.10 -16.1%

League track record ↗

Based on 34 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 38%

O2.5 38%

BTTS 53%

Score Hit 47%

ROI -11.4%

Bet Hit 50%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 36%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)1.9 xG (away)0.9 BTTS prob53.1%

H 53% / xG 1.9-0.9 / O2.5 52% / BTTS 53%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 10.6%

#2 2–0 11.0%

#3 1–0 11.8%

#4 2–1 9.9%

#5 0–0 6.3%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Deportes Copiapo1.9

Curico Unido0.9

COMBINED 2.8 xG → O2.5 PROB 52.5% · O3.5 PROB 31.3%

Form & verdict PPG

DEPORTES COPIAPO · PPG 1.89

CURICO UNIDO · PPG 0.89

✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage | No clear value

75%

MODERATE_HOME

xG gap +0.96 - moderate Home edge

Win probability 1X2

Deportes Copiapo (H) 53.3%

ODDS 1.91 · IMPLIED 52.4% EV +1.8%

Draw 24.4%

ODDS 3.30 · IMPLIED 30.3% EV -11.7%

Curico Unido (A) 22.2%

ODDS 3.60 · IMPLIED 27.8% EV -12.0%

Match Preview & Prediction

Deportes Copiapo face Curico Unido in Chile - Liga de Ascenso on Monday, August 17, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Deportes Copiapo a 53% chance, the draw 24% and Curico Unido 22%, so Deportes Copiapo are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.9 for Deportes Copiapo and 0.9 for Curico Unido (2.8 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 53% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 53% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Deportes Copiapo are averaging 1.89 points per game versus 0.89 for Curico Unido. The best value bet our model finds is H/O25, with an expected value of +16.4%.

Deportes Copiapo vs Curico Unido Prediction— Chile - Liga de Ascenso

Match Preview & Prediction

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