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Curico Unido vs Deportes Santa Cruz Prediction— Chile - Liga de Ascenso

Matchday 20 ·Friday, August 14, 2026, 00:30

Curico Unido

PPG 1.33 · HOME

UPCOMING

Deportes Santa Cruz

PPG 0.56 · AWAY

// Model verdict

BTTS

Model probability 53.1% vs bookmaker-implied 57.1%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-07.6%0-17.5%0-23.7%0-31.2%0-4+0.4%1 1-012.1%1-111.9%1-25.9%1-31.9%1-4+0.6%2 2-09.6%2-19.5%2-24.7%2-31.5%2-4+0.5%3 3-05.1%3-15.0%3-22.5%3-30.8%3-4+0.2%4+ 4+-02.9%4+-12.8%4+-21.4%4+-30.5%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 49.6% 48.8% 2.05 +1.7%

Draw 26.0% 30.3% 3.30 -8.5%

Away win 24.4% 30.3% 3.30 -11.7%

Over 2.5 49.9% 51.3% 1.95 -2.7%

Over 3.5 29.5% 29.0% 3.45 +1.1%

BTTS 53.1% 57.1% 1.75 -7.1%

Home O1.5 47.2% 47.6% 2.10 -0.9%

Away O1.5 27.4% 34.5% 2.90 -12.3%

League track record ↗

Based on 29 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 35%

O2.5 41%

BTTS 48%

Score Hit 48%

ROI -11.4%

Bet Hit 50%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 28%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)1.6 xG (away)1.0 BTTS prob53.1%

H 50% / xG 1.6-1.0 / O2.5 50% / BTTS 53%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 11.9%

#2 1–0 12.1%

#3 2–0 9.6%

#4 2–1 9.5%

#5 0–0 7.6%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Curico Unido1.6

Deportes Santa Cruz1.0

COMBINED 2.6 xG → O2.5 PROB 49.9% · O3.5 PROB 29.5%

Form & verdict PPG

CURICO UNIDO · PPG 1.33

DEPORTES SANTA CRUZ · PPG 0.56

✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage | No clear value

75%

MODERATE_HOME

xG gap +0.60 - moderate Home edge

Win probability 1X2

Curico Unido (H) 49.6%

ODDS 2.05 · IMPLIED 48.8% EV +1.7%

Draw 26.0%

ODDS 3.30 · IMPLIED 30.3% EV -8.5%

Deportes Santa Cruz (A) 24.4%

ODDS 3.30 · IMPLIED 30.3% EV -11.7%

Match Preview & Prediction

Curico Unido face Deportes Santa Cruz in Chile - Liga de Ascenso on Friday, August 14, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Curico Unido a 50% chance, the draw 26% and Deportes Santa Cruz 24%, so Curico Unido are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.6 for Curico Unido and 1.0 for Deportes Santa Cruz (2.6 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 50% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 53% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Curico Unido are averaging 1.33 points per game versus 0.56 for Deportes Santa Cruz. The best value bet our model finds is over 3.5 goals, with an expected value of +1.1%.

Curico Unido vs Deportes Santa Cruz Prediction— Chile - Liga de Ascenso

Match Preview & Prediction

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