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Deportes Iquique vs Antofagasta Prediction— Chile - Liga de Ascenso

Matchday 21 ·Monday, August 17, 2026, 00:00

Deportes Iquique

PPG 1.70 · HOME

UPCOMING

Antofagasta

PPG 1.20 · AWAY

// Model verdict

BTTS

Model probability 54.5% vs bookmaker-implied 62.5%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-07.2%0-18.2%0-24.7%0-31.8%0-4+0.7%1 1-010.7%1-112.3%1-27.0%1-32.7%1-4+1.0%2 2-08.0%2-19.1%2-25.2%2-32.0%2-4+0.7%3 3-03.9%3-14.5%3-22.6%3-31.0%3-4+0.4%4+ 4+-02.0%4+-12.3%4+-21.3%4+-30.5%4+-4+0.2%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 47.3% 40.8% 2.45 +15.9%

Draw 24.7% 29.0% 3.45 -8.9%

Away win 28.0% 40.8% 2.45 -18.8%

Over 2.5 53.7% 56.5% 1.77 -5.0%

Over 3.5 31.8% 33.9% 2.95 -6.2%

BTTS 54.5% 62.5% 1.60 -12.8%

Home O1.5 45.1% 45.5% 2.20 -0.8%

Away O1.5 34.7% 45.5% 2.20 -23.7%

League track record ↗

Based on 34 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 38%

O2.5 38%

BTTS 53%

Score Hit 47%

ROI -11.4%

Bet Hit 50%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 32%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)1.5 xG (away)1.1 BTTS prob54.5%

H 47% / xG 1.5-1.1 / O2.5 54% / BTTS 55%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 12.3%

#2 2–1 9.1%

#3 0–0 7.2%

#4 1–0 10.7%

#5 2–0 8.0%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Deportes Iquique1.5

Antofagasta1.1

COMBINED 2.6 xG → O2.5 PROB 53.7% · O3.5 PROB 31.8%

Form & verdict PPG

DEPORTES IQUIQUE · PPG 1.70

ANTOFAGASTA · PPG 1.20

✓ FAIR - Balanced matchup, limited value

60%

BALANCED

xG gap +0.34 - no reliable favorite, elevated draw risk

Win probability 1X2

Deportes Iquique (H) 47.3%

ODDS 2.45 · IMPLIED 40.8% EV +15.9%

Draw 24.7%

ODDS 3.45 · IMPLIED 29.0% EV -8.9%

Antofagasta (A) 28.0%

ODDS 2.45 · IMPLIED 40.8% EV -18.8%

Match Preview & Prediction

Deportes Iquique face Antofagasta in Chile - Liga de Ascenso on Monday, August 17, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Deportes Iquique a 47% chance, the draw 25% and Antofagasta 28%, so Deportes Iquique are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.5 for Deportes Iquique and 1.1 for Antofagasta (2.6 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 54% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 55% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Deportes Iquique are averaging 1.70 points per game versus 1.20 for Antofagasta. The best value bet our model finds is H/O25, with an expected value of +5.4%.

Deportes Iquique vs Antofagasta Prediction— Chile - Liga de Ascenso

Match Preview & Prediction

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