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Union Espanola vs San Marcos de Arica Prediction— Chile - Liga de Ascenso

Matchday 21 ·Sunday, August 16, 2026, 00:00

Union Espanola

PPG 2.00 · HOME

UPCOMING

San Marcos de Arica

PPG 1.56 · AWAY

// Model verdict

BTTS

Model probability 50.9% vs bookmaker-implied 59.9%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-011.5%0-111.9%0-26.1%0-32.1%0-4+0.7%1 1-013.0%1-113.4%1-26.9%1-32.4%1-4+0.8%2 2-07.4%2-17.6%2-23.9%2-31.3%2-4+0.4%3 3-02.8%3-12.9%3-21.5%3-30.5%3-4+0.2%4+ 4+-01.0%4+-11.0%4+-20.5%4+-30.2%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 36.5% 44.4% 2.25 -17.9%

Draw 28.8% 29.9% 3.35 -2.1%

Away win 34.8% 35.7% 2.80 -2.6%

Over 2.5 45.9% 54.1% 1.85 -15.1%

Over 3.5 26.8% 31.3% 3.20 -8.5%

BTTS 50.9% 59.9% 1.67 -15.0%

Home O1.5 30.2% 46.5% 2.15 -35.1%

Away O1.5 31.7% 40.0% 2.50 -20.8%

League track record ↗

Based on 32 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 34%

O2.5 38%

BTTS 50%

Score Hit 47%

ROI -11.4%

Bet Hit 50%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 2 31%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)1.1 xG (away)1.0 BTTS prob50.9%

D 29% / xG 1.1-1.0 / U2.5 46% / BTTS 51%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 13.4%

#2 0–0 11.5%

#3 1–0 13.0%

#4 0–1 11.9%

#5 2–1 7.6%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Union Espanola1.1

San Marcos de Arica1.0

COMBINED 2.2 xG → O2.5 PROB 45.9% · O3.5 PROB 26.8%

Form & verdict PPG

UNION ESPANOLA · PPG 2.00

SAN MARCOS DE ARICA · PPG 1.56

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ⚖ HIGH DRAW RISK - evenly matched, low-scoring expected | No clear v...

45%

HIGH_DRAW_RISK

xG gap +0.10, combined xG 2.16 - evenly matched, low-scoring, elevated Draw risk

Win probability 1X2

Union Espanola (H) 36.5%

ODDS 2.25 · IMPLIED 44.4% EV -17.9%

Draw 28.8%

ODDS 3.35 · IMPLIED 29.9% EV -2.1%

San Marcos de Arica (A) 34.8%

ODDS 2.80 · IMPLIED 35.7% EV -2.6%

Match Preview & Prediction

Union Espanola face San Marcos de Arica in Chile - Liga de Ascenso on Sunday, August 16, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Union Espanola a 37% chance, the draw 29% and San Marcos de Arica 35%, so Union Espanola are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.1 for Union Espanola and 1.0 for San Marcos de Arica (2.2 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 46% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 51% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Union Espanola are averaging 2.00 points per game versus 1.56 for San Marcos de Arica.

Union Espanola vs San Marcos de Arica Prediction— Chile - Liga de Ascenso

Match Preview & Prediction

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