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Antofagasta vs Santiago Wanderers Prediction— Chile - Liga de Ascenso

Matchday 20 ·Thursday, August 13, 2026, 00:30

Antofagasta

PPG 2.12 · HOME

UPCOMING

Santiago Wanderers

PPG 1.89 · AWAY

// Model verdict

BTTS

Model probability 54.5% vs bookmaker-implied 60.6%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-06.2%0-17.1%0-24.0%0-31.5%0-4+0.6%1 1-010.2%1-111.6%1-26.6%1-32.5%1-4+0.9%2 2-08.4%2-19.5%2-25.4%2-32.0%2-4+0.7%3 3-04.6%3-15.2%3-22.9%3-31.1%3-4+0.4%4+ 4+-02.7%4+-13.1%4+-21.7%4+-30.7%4+-4+0.2%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 48.0% 54.1% 1.85 -11.2%

Draw 24.5% 28.6% 3.50 -8.6%

Away win 27.6% 28.2% 3.55 -1.2%

Over 2.5 53.7% 56.5% 1.77 -5.0%

Over 3.5 31.8% 33.9% 2.95 -6.2%

BTTS 54.5% 60.6% 1.65 -10.1%

Home O1.5 47.2% 54.6% 1.83 -13.6%

Away O1.5 34.7% 35.7% 2.80 -2.8%

League track record ↗

Based on 25 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 36%

O2.5 44%

BTTS 48%

Score Hit 48%

ROI -20.3%

Bet Hit 46%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 35%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)1.6 xG (away)1.1 BTTS prob54.5%

H 48% / xG 1.6-1.1 / O2.5 54% / BTTS 55%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 11.6%

#2 2–1 9.5%

#3 1–0 10.2%

#4 2–0 8.4%

#5 0–0 6.2%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Antofagasta1.6

Santiago Wanderers1.1

COMBINED 2.8 xG → O2.5 PROB 53.7% · O3.5 PROB 31.8%

Form & verdict PPG

ANTOFAGASTA · PPG 2.12

SANTIAGO WANDERERS · PPG 1.89

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage | No clear value

52%

MODERATE_HOME

xG gap +0.50 - moderate Home edge

Win probability 1X2

Antofagasta (H) 48.0%

ODDS 1.85 · IMPLIED 54.1% EV -11.2%

Draw 24.5%

ODDS 3.50 · IMPLIED 28.6% EV -8.6%

Santiago Wanderers (A) 27.6%

ODDS 3.55 · IMPLIED 28.2% EV -1.2%

Match Preview & Prediction

Antofagasta face Santiago Wanderers in Chile - Liga de Ascenso on Thursday, August 13, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Antofagasta a 48% chance, the draw 25% and Santiago Wanderers 28%, so Antofagasta are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.6 for Antofagasta and 1.1 for Santiago Wanderers (2.8 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 54% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 55% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Antofagasta are averaging 2.12 points per game versus 1.89 for Santiago Wanderers. The best value bet our model finds is A/O25, with an expected value of +8.8%.

Antofagasta vs Santiago Wanderers Prediction— Chile - Liga de Ascenso

Match Preview & Prediction

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