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Union San Felipe vs Cobreloa Prediction— Chile - Liga de Ascenso

Matchday 21 ·Sunday, August 16, 2026, 19:00

Union San Felipe

PPG 1.62 · HOME

UPCOMING

Cobreloa

PPG 1.00 · AWAY

// Model verdict

BTTS

Model probability 53.1% vs bookmaker-implied 57.8%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-08.0%0-111.6%0-28.4%0-34.1%0-4+2.0%1 1-08.6%1-112.5%1-29.0%1-34.4%1-4+2.2%2 2-04.6%2-16.7%2-24.9%2-32.4%2-4+1.2%3 3-01.7%3-12.4%3-21.7%3-30.8%3-4+0.4%4+ 4+-00.6%4+-10.8%4+-20.6%4+-30.3%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 31.4% 35.1% 2.85 -10.5%

Draw 27.0% 30.8% 3.25 -7.3%

Away win 41.5% 44.4% 2.25 -6.6%

Over 2.5 49.9% 51.3% 1.95 -2.7%

Over 3.5 28.7% 29.0% 3.45 -0.6%

BTTS 53.1% 57.8% 1.73 -8.1%

Home O1.5 30.2% 38.2% 2.62 -20.9%

Away O1.5 42.6% 44.4% 2.25 -4.2%

League track record ↗

Based on 32 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 34%

O2.5 38%

BTTS 50%

Score Hit 47%

ROI -11.4%

Bet Hit 50%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 2 21%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)1.1 xG (away)1.4 BTTS prob53.1%

A 42% / xG 1.1-1.4 / O2.5 50% / BTTS 53%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 12.5%

#2 0–0 8.0%

#3 0–1 11.6%

#4 1–2 9.0%

#5 0–2 8.4%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Union San Felipe1.1

Cobreloa1.4

COMBINED 2.5 xG → O2.5 PROB 49.9% · O3.5 PROB 28.7%

Form & verdict PPG

UNION SAN FELIPE · PPG 1.62

COBRELOA · PPG 1.00

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Balanced matchup, limited value | No clear value

42%

BALANCED

xG gap -0.37 - no reliable favorite, elevated draw risk

Win probability 1X2

Union San Felipe (H) 31.4%

ODDS 2.85 · IMPLIED 35.1% EV -10.5%

Draw 27.0%

ODDS 3.25 · IMPLIED 30.8% EV -7.3%

Cobreloa (A) 41.5%

ODDS 2.25 · IMPLIED 44.4% EV -6.6%

Match Preview & Prediction

Union San Felipe face Cobreloa in Chile - Liga de Ascenso on Sunday, August 16, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Union San Felipe a 31% chance, the draw 27% and Cobreloa 42%, so Cobreloa are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.1 for Union San Felipe and 1.4 for Cobreloa (2.5 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 50% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 53% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Union San Felipe are averaging 1.62 points per game versus 1.00 for Cobreloa.

Union San Felipe vs Cobreloa Prediction— Chile - Liga de Ascenso

Match Preview & Prediction

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