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Macara vs Universidad Catolica Prediction— Ecuador - Liga Pro

Matchday 25 ·Tuesday, August 18, 2026, 00:00

Macara

PPG 1.92 · HOME

UPCOMING

Universidad Catolica

PPG 1.08 · AWAY

// Model verdict

BTTS

Model probability 53.1% vs bookmaker-implied 55.6%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-09.6%0-110.0%0-25.2%0-31.8%0-4+0.6%1 1-012.5%1-113.0%1-26.8%1-32.4%1-4+0.8%2 2-08.1%2-18.5%2-24.4%2-31.5%2-4+0.5%3 3-03.5%3-13.7%3-21.9%3-30.7%3-4+0.2%4+ 4+-01.5%4+-11.6%4+-20.8%4+-30.3%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 44.9% 32.3% 3.10 +39.2%

Draw 26.9% 30.8% 3.25 -7.5%

Away win 28.2% 43.9% 2.28 -21.4%

Over 2.5 49.9% 47.6% 2.10 +4.8%

Over 3.5 28.7% 26.3% 3.80 +5.4%

BTTS 53.1% 55.6% 1.80 -4.4%

Home O1.5 37.9% 34.5% 2.90 +9.9%

Away O1.5 32.3% 42.6% 2.35 -24.1%

League track record ↗

Based on 101 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 48%

O2.5 55%

BTTS 52%

Score Hit 56%

ROI 3.3%

Bet Hit 56%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 1 24%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)1.3 xG (away)1.0 BTTS prob53.1%

H 45% / xG 1.3-1.0 / U2.5 50% / BTTS 53%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 13.0%

#2 0–0 9.6%

#3 1–0 12.5%

#4 2–1 8.5%

#5 2–0 8.1%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Macara1.3

Universidad Catolica1.0

COMBINED 2.3 xG → O2.5 PROB 49.9% · O3.5 PROB 28.7%

Form & verdict PPG

MACARA · PPG 1.92

UNIVERSIDAD CATOLICA · PPG 1.08

⚖ HIGH DRAW RISK - evenly matched, low-scoring expected

65%

HIGH_DRAW_RISK

xG gap +0.25, combined xG 2.34 - evenly matched, low-scoring, elevated Draw risk

Win probability 1X2

Macara (H) 44.9%

ODDS 3.10 · IMPLIED 32.3% EV +39.2%

Draw 26.9%

ODDS 3.25 · IMPLIED 30.8% EV -7.5%

Universidad Catolica (A) 28.2%

ODDS 2.28 · IMPLIED 43.9% EV -21.4%

Match Preview & Prediction

Macara face Universidad Catolica in Ecuador - Liga Pro on Tuesday, August 18, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Macara a 45% chance, the draw 27% and Universidad Catolica 28%, so Macara are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.3 for Macara and 1.0 for Universidad Catolica (2.3 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 50% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 53% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Macara are averaging 1.92 points per game versus 1.08 for Universidad Catolica. The best value bet our model finds is H/O25, with an expected value of +17.1%.

Macara vs Universidad Catolica Prediction— Ecuador - Liga Pro

Match Preview & Prediction

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