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Emelec vs Tecnico Universitario Prediction— Ecuador - Liga Pro

Matchday 25 ·Sunday, August 16, 2026, 21:15

Emelec

PPG 1.58 · HOME

UPCOMING

Tecnico Universitario

PPG 0.83 · AWAY

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-013.7%0-110.1%0-23.7%0-30.9%0-4+0.2%1 1-017.2%1-112.6%1-24.6%1-31.1%1-4+0.2%2 2-010.8%2-17.9%2-22.9%2-30.7%2-4+0.2%3 3-04.5%3-13.3%3-21.2%3-30.3%3-4+0.1%4+ 4+-01.9%4+-11.4%4+-20.5%4+-30.1%4+-4+0.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 48.8% 57.1% 1.75 -14.6%

Draw 27.8% 29.9% 3.35 -4.1%

Away win 23.4% 20.0% 5.00 +10.2%

Over 2.5 42.7% 42.6% 2.35 +0.3%

Over 3.5 21.7% 22.2% 4.50 -1.4%

BTTS 47.7% 47.6% 2.10 +0.2%

Home O1.5 36.2% 47.6% 2.10 -24.0%

Away O1.5 17.2% 21.1% 4.75 -11.0%

League track record ↗

Based on 96 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 48%

O2.5 55%

BTTS 52%

Score Hit 55%

ROI 9.4%

Bet Hit 59%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 0 36%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)1.3 xG (away)0.7 BTTS prob47.7%

H 49% / xG 1.3-0.7 / U2.5 43% / NoBTTS 48%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 0–0 13.7%

#2 1–0 17.2%

#3 1–1 12.6%

#4 2–0 10.8%

#5 0–1 10.1%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Emelec1.3

Tecnico Universitario0.7

COMBINED 2.0 xG → O2.5 PROB 42.7% · O3.5 PROB 21.7%

Form & verdict PPG

EMELEC · PPG 1.58

TECNICO UNIVERSITARIO · PPG 0.83

✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage

75%

MODERATE_HOME

xG gap +0.52 - moderate Home edge

Win probability 1X2

Emelec (H) 48.8%

ODDS 1.75 · IMPLIED 57.1% EV -14.6%

Draw 27.8%

ODDS 3.35 · IMPLIED 29.9% EV -4.1%

Tecnico Universitario (A) 23.4%

ODDS 5.00 · IMPLIED 20.0% EV +10.2%

Match Preview & Prediction

Emelec face Tecnico Universitario in Ecuador - Liga Pro on Sunday, August 16, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Emelec a 49% chance, the draw 28% and Tecnico Universitario 23%, so Emelec are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.3 for Emelec and 0.7 for Tecnico Universitario (2.0 total). The most likely scoreline is 0-0. There is a 43% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 48% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Emelec are averaging 1.58 points per game versus 0.83 for Tecnico Universitario. The best value bet our model finds is A/O25, with an expected value of +11.3%.

Emelec vs Tecnico Universitario Prediction— Ecuador - Liga Pro

Match Preview & Prediction

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