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Manta FC vs Leones del Norte Prediction— Ecuador - Liga Pro

Matchday 25 ·Saturday, August 15, 2026, 19:00

Manta FC

PPG 0.75 · HOME

UPCOMING

Leones del Norte

PPG 1.00 · AWAY

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-020.9%0-118.4%0-28.1%0-32.4%0-4+0.6%1 1-014.3%1-112.6%1-25.6%1-31.6%1-4+0.4%2 2-04.9%2-14.3%2-21.9%2-30.6%2-4+0.1%3 3-01.1%3-11.0%3-20.4%3-30.1%3-4+0.0%4+ 4+-00.2%4+-10.2%4+-20.1%4+-30.0%4+-4+0.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 31.0% 35.5% 2.82 -12.6%

Draw 33.8% 33.6% 2.98 +0.7%

Away win 35.3% 37.9% 2.64 -6.8%

Over 2.5 34.2% 38.5% 2.60 -11.1%

Over 3.5 17.7% 19.0% 5.25 -4.2%

BTTS 44.6% 48.8% 2.05 -8.6%

Home O1.5 30.2% 31.3% 3.20 -3.4%

Away O1.5 23.6% 33.3% 3.00 -17.5%

League track record ↗

Based on 95 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 47%

O2.5 55%

BTTS 53%

Score Hit 56%

ROI 9.4%

Bet Hit 59%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 1 52%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)0.7 xG (away)0.9 BTTS prob44.6%

D 34% / xG 0.7-0.9 / U2.5 34% / NoBTTS 45%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 0–0 20.9%

#2 0–1 18.4%

#3 1–1 12.6%

#4 1–0 14.3%

#5 0–2 8.1%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Manta FC0.7

Leones del Norte0.9

COMBINED 1.6 xG → O2.5 PROB 34.2% · O3.5 PROB 17.7%

Form & verdict PPG

MANTA FC · PPG 0.75

LEONES DEL NORTE · PPG 1.00

⚖ HIGH DRAW RISK - evenly matched, low-scoring expected | No clear value

65%

HIGH_DRAW_RISK

xG gap -0.19, combined xG 1.57 - evenly matched, low-scoring, elevated Draw risk

Win probability 1X2

Manta FC (H) 31.0%

ODDS 2.82 · IMPLIED 35.5% EV -12.6%

Draw 33.8%

ODDS 2.98 · IMPLIED 33.6% EV +0.7%

Leones del Norte (A) 35.3%

ODDS 2.64 · IMPLIED 37.9% EV -6.8%

Match Preview & Prediction

Manta FC face Leones del Norte in Ecuador - Liga Pro on Saturday, August 15, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Manta FC a 31% chance, the draw 34% and Leones del Norte 35%, so Leones del Norte are favoured to win. Expected goals are 0.7 for Manta FC and 0.9 for Leones del Norte (1.6 total). The most likely scoreline is 0-0. There is a 34% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 45% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Manta FC are averaging 0.75 points per game versus 1.00 for Leones del Norte.

Manta FC vs Leones del Norte Prediction— Ecuador - Liga Pro

Match Preview & Prediction

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