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Mushuc Runa SC vs Barcelona SC Prediction— Ecuador - Liga Pro

Matchday 25 ·Sunday, August 16, 2026, 00:00

Mushuc Runa SC

PPG 1.58 · HOME

UPCOMING

Barcelona SC

PPG 0.92 · AWAY

// Model verdict

BTTS

Model probability 53.1% vs bookmaker-implied 54.6%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-010.9%0-110.8%0-25.4%0-31.8%0-4+0.5%1 1-013.3%1-113.2%1-26.6%1-32.2%1-4+0.7%2 2-08.2%2-18.1%2-24.0%2-31.3%2-4+0.4%3 3-03.3%3-13.3%3-21.6%3-30.5%3-4+0.2%4+ 4+-01.3%4+-11.3%4+-20.7%4+-30.2%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 41.4% 45.5% 2.20 -8.9%

Draw 28.2% 30.8% 3.25 -5.0%

Away win 30.4% 30.8% 3.25 -1.2%

Over 2.5 47.3% 47.6% 2.10 -0.7%

Over 3.5 28.2% 26.3% 3.80 +4.3%

BTTS 53.1% 54.6% 1.83 -2.8%

Home O1.5 32.7% 43.5% 2.30 -24.8%

Away O1.5 28.0% 33.3% 3.00 -9.6%

League track record ↗

Based on 96 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 48%

O2.5 55%

BTTS 52%

Score Hit 55%

ROI 9.4%

Bet Hit 59%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 1 25%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)1.2 xG (away)1.0 BTTS prob53.1%

H 41% / xG 1.2-1.0 / U2.5 47% / BTTS 53%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 13.2%

#2 0–0 10.9%

#3 1–0 13.3%

#4 0–1 10.8%

#5 2–0 8.2%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Mushuc Runa SC1.2

Barcelona SC1.0

COMBINED 2.2 xG → O2.5 PROB 47.3% · O3.5 PROB 28.2%

Form & verdict PPG

MUSHUC RUNA SC · PPG 1.58

BARCELONA SC · PPG 0.92

⚖ HIGH DRAW RISK - evenly matched, low-scoring expected | No clear value

65%

HIGH_DRAW_RISK

xG gap +0.23, combined xG 2.22 - evenly matched, low-scoring, elevated Draw risk

Win probability 1X2

Mushuc Runa SC (H) 41.4%

ODDS 2.20 · IMPLIED 45.5% EV -8.9%

Draw 28.2%

ODDS 3.25 · IMPLIED 30.8% EV -5.0%

Barcelona SC (A) 30.4%

ODDS 3.25 · IMPLIED 30.8% EV -1.2%

Match Preview & Prediction

Mushuc Runa SC face Barcelona SC in Ecuador - Liga Pro on Sunday, August 16, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Mushuc Runa SC a 41% chance, the draw 28% and Barcelona SC 30%, so Mushuc Runa SC are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.2 for Mushuc Runa SC and 1.0 for Barcelona SC (2.2 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 47% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 53% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Mushuc Runa SC are averaging 1.58 points per game versus 0.92 for Barcelona SC. The best value bet our model finds is over 3.5 goals, with an expected value of +4.3%.

Mushuc Runa SC vs Barcelona SC Prediction— Ecuador - Liga Pro

Match Preview & Prediction

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