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Aucas vs LDU de Quito Prediction— Ecuador - Liga Pro

Matchday 25 ·Monday, August 17, 2026, 00:00

Aucas

PPG 1.83 · HOME

UPCOMING

LDU de Quito

PPG 1.42 · AWAY

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-013.7%0-111.6%0-24.9%0-31.4%0-4+0.4%1 1-015.6%1-113.2%1-25.6%1-31.6%1-4+0.4%2 2-08.9%2-17.5%2-23.2%2-30.9%2-4+0.2%3 3-03.4%3-12.9%3-21.2%3-30.3%3-4+0.1%4+ 4+-01.2%4+-11.0%4+-20.4%4+-30.1%4+-4+0.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 42.7% 43.9% 2.28 -2.6%

Draw 28.1% 30.3% 3.30 -4.4%

Away win 29.2% 32.8% 3.05 -6.6%

Over 2.5 42.7% 47.6% 2.10 -10.3%

Over 3.5 21.1% 26.3% 3.80 -11.9%

BTTS 47.7% 54.6% 1.83 -12.7%

Home O1.5 30.2% 42.6% 2.35 -29.0%

Away O1.5 21.1% 34.7% 2.88 -23.5%

League track record ↗

Based on 98 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 48%

O2.5 56%

BTTS 52%

Score Hit 56%

ROI 9.4%

Bet Hit 59%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 0 32%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)1.1 xG (away)0.8 BTTS prob47.7%

H 43% / xG 1.1-0.8 / U2.5 43% / NoBTTS 48%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 0–0 13.7%

#2 1–1 13.2%

#3 1–0 15.6%

#4 0–1 11.6%

#5 2–0 8.9%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Aucas1.1

LDU de Quito0.8

COMBINED 2.0 xG → O2.5 PROB 42.7% · O3.5 PROB 21.1%

Form & verdict PPG

AUCAS · PPG 1.83

LDU DE QUITO · PPG 1.42

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ⚖ HIGH DRAW RISK - evenly matched, low-scoring expected | No clear v...

45%

HIGH_DRAW_RISK

xG gap +0.29, combined xG 1.99 - evenly matched, low-scoring, elevated Draw risk

Win probability 1X2

Aucas (H) 42.7%

ODDS 2.28 · IMPLIED 43.9% EV -2.6%

Draw 28.1%

ODDS 3.30 · IMPLIED 30.3% EV -4.4%

LDU de Quito (A) 29.2%

ODDS 3.05 · IMPLIED 32.8% EV -6.6%

Match Preview & Prediction

Aucas face LDU de Quito in Ecuador - Liga Pro on Monday, August 17, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Aucas a 43% chance, the draw 28% and LDU de Quito 29%, so Aucas are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.1 for Aucas and 0.8 for LDU de Quito (2.0 total). The most likely scoreline is 0-0. There is a 43% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 48% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Aucas are averaging 1.83 points per game versus 1.42 for LDU de Quito.

Aucas vs LDU de Quito Prediction— Ecuador - Liga Pro

Match Preview & Prediction

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