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Orense SC vs Deportivo Cuenca Prediction— Ecuador - Liga Pro

Matchday 25 ·Sunday, August 16, 2026, 19:00

Orense SC

PPG 1.25 · HOME

UPCOMING

Deportivo Cuenca

PPG 1.33 · AWAY

// Model verdict

BTTS

Model probability 53.1% vs bookmaker-implied 52.4% — a real, if thin, edge.

+1.4% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-08.2%0-18.3%0-24.2%0-31.4%0-4+0.4%1 1-012.2%1-112.4%1-26.3%1-32.1%1-4+0.7%2 2-09.1%2-19.2%2-24.6%2-31.6%2-4+0.5%3 3-04.5%3-14.5%3-22.3%3-30.8%3-4+0.2%4+ 4+-02.3%4+-12.3%4+-21.2%4+-30.4%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 47.6% 50.8% 1.97 -6.2%

Draw 26.1% 30.3% 3.30 -8.3%

Away win 26.3% 26.0% 3.85 +0.8%

Over 2.5 50.1% 45.5% 2.20 +10.2%

Over 3.5 29.6% 23.8% 4.20 +14.6%

BTTS 53.1% 52.4% 1.91 +1.4%

Home O1.5 45.1% 46.5% 2.15 -3.0%

Away O1.5 30.5% 28.2% 3.55 +8.3%

League track record ↗

Based on 96 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 48%

O2.5 55%

BTTS 52%

Score Hit 55%

ROI 9.4%

Bet Hit 59%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 25%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)1.5 xG (away)1.0 BTTS prob53.1%

H 48% / xG 1.5-1.0 / O2.5 50% / BTTS 53%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 12.4%

#2 1–0 12.2%

#3 0–0 8.2%

#4 2–1 9.2%

#5 2–0 9.1%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Orense SC1.5

Deportivo Cuenca1.0

COMBINED 2.5 xG → O2.5 PROB 50.1% · O3.5 PROB 29.6%

Form & verdict PPG

ORENSE SC · PPG 1.25

DEPORTIVO CUENCA · PPG 1.33

⚖ HIGH DRAW RISK - evenly matched, low-scoring expected

65%

HIGH_DRAW_RISK

xG gap +0.47, combined xG 2.50 - evenly matched, low-scoring, elevated Draw risk

Win probability 1X2

Orense SC (H) 47.6%

ODDS 1.97 · IMPLIED 50.8% EV -6.2%

Draw 26.1%

ODDS 3.30 · IMPLIED 30.3% EV -8.3%

Deportivo Cuenca (A) 26.3%

ODDS 3.85 · IMPLIED 26.0% EV +0.8%

Match Preview & Prediction

Orense SC face Deportivo Cuenca in Ecuador - Liga Pro on Sunday, August 16, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Orense SC a 48% chance, the draw 26% and Deportivo Cuenca 26%, so Orense SC are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.5 for Orense SC and 1.0 for Deportivo Cuenca (2.5 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 50% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 53% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Orense SC are averaging 1.25 points per game versus 1.33 for Deportivo Cuenca. The best value bet our model finds is over 3.5 goals, with an expected value of +14.6%.

Orense SC vs Deportivo Cuenca Prediction— Ecuador - Liga Pro

Match Preview & Prediction

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