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Independiente del Valle vs Delfin SC Prediction— Ecuador - Liga Pro

Matchday 25 ·Saturday, August 15, 2026, 00:00

Independiente del Valle

PPG 2.33 · HOME

UPCOMING

Delfin SC

PPG 0.50 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Home

Model probability 75.7% vs bookmaker-implied 84.0%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-04.0%0-12.1%0-20.6%0-30.1%0-4+0.0%1 1-010.7%1-15.7%1-21.5%1-30.3%1-4+0.0%2 2-014.4%2-17.7%2-22.1%2-30.4%2-4+0.1%3 3-012.9%3-16.9%3-21.8%3-30.3%3-4+0.0%4+ 4+-016.6%4+-18.8%4+-22.4%4+-30.4%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 75.7% 84.0% 1.19 -9.9%

Draw 16.6% 16.9% 5.90 -1.2%

Away win 7.7% 6.1% 16.50 +16.2%

Over 2.5 61.9% 61.7% 1.62 +0.3%

Over 3.5 38.7% 39.2% 2.55 -1.3%

BTTS 47.7% 43.5% 2.30 +9.7%

Home O1.5 63.4% 75.2% 1.33 -15.7%

Away O1.5 16.7% 11.1% 9.00 +30.2%

League track record ↗

Based on 95 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 47%

O2.5 55%

BTTS 53%

Score Hit 56%

ROI 9.4%

Bet Hit 59%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

4 – 0 57%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)2.7 xG (away)0.5 BTTS prob47.7%

H 76% / xG 2.7-0.5 / O2.5 62% / NoBTTS 48%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 2–0 14.4%

#2 3–0 12.9%

#3 1–0 10.7%

#4 4–0 8.7%

#5 2–1 7.7%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Independiente del Valle2.7

Delfin SC0.5

COMBINED 3.2 xG → O2.5 PROB 61.9% · O3.5 PROB 38.7%

Form & verdict PPG

INDEPENDIENTE DEL VALLE · PPG 2.33

DELFIN SC · PPG 0.50

✓ SOLID - Home form strong, but alternative markets offers value

95%

STRONG_HOME

xG gap +2.15 for Home, form 2.33 vs 0.50 - Strong consensus

Win probability 1X2

Independiente del Valle (H) 75.7%

ODDS 1.19 · IMPLIED 84.0% EV -9.9%

Draw 16.6%

ODDS 5.90 · IMPLIED 16.9% EV -1.2%

Delfin SC (A) 7.7%

ODDS 16.50 · IMPLIED 6.1% EV +16.2%

Match Preview & Prediction

Independiente del Valle face Delfin SC in Ecuador - Liga Pro on Saturday, August 15, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Independiente del Valle a 76% chance, the draw 17% and Delfin SC 8%, so Independiente del Valle are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.7 for Independiente del Valle and 0.5 for Delfin SC (3.2 total). The most likely scoreline is 2-0. There is a 62% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 48% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Independiente del Valle are averaging 2.33 points per game versus 0.50 for Delfin SC. The best value bet our model finds is AwayO15, with an expected value of +30.2%.

Independiente del Valle vs Delfin SC Prediction— Ecuador - Liga Pro

Match Preview & Prediction

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