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Guayaquil City FC vs Libertad Prediction— Ecuador - Liga Pro

Matchday 25 ·Saturday, August 15, 2026, 21:30

Guayaquil City FC

PPG 1.42 · HOME

UPCOMING

Libertad

PPG 0.83 · AWAY

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-015.4%0-112.3%0-24.9%0-31.3%0-4+0.3%1 1-016.5%1-113.2%1-25.3%1-31.4%1-4+0.3%2 2-08.8%2-17.1%2-22.8%2-30.8%2-4+0.2%3 3-03.2%3-12.5%3-21.0%3-30.3%3-4+0.1%4+ 4+-01.1%4+-10.9%4+-20.3%4+-30.1%4+-4+0.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 39.2% 51.0% 1.96 -23.2%

Draw 32.8% 31.7% 3.15 +3.3%

Away win 28.0% 24.4% 4.10 +8.9%

Over 2.5 34.2% 40.8% 2.45 -16.2%

Over 3.5 17.7% 21.1% 4.75 -9.6%

BTTS 44.6% 48.8% 2.05 -8.6%

Home O1.5 30.2% 43.5% 2.30 -30.5%

Away O1.5 21.1% 25.0% 4.00 -9.4%

League track record ↗

Based on 95 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 47%

O2.5 55%

BTTS 53%

Score Hit 56%

ROI 9.4%

Bet Hit 59%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 0 39%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)1.1 xG (away)0.8 BTTS prob44.6%

H 39% / xG 1.1-0.8 / U2.5 34% / NoBTTS 45%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 0–0 15.4%

#2 1–1 13.2%

#3 1–0 16.5%

#4 0–1 12.3%

#5 2–0 8.8%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Guayaquil City FC1.1

Libertad0.8

COMBINED 1.9 xG → O2.5 PROB 34.2% · O3.5 PROB 17.7%

Form & verdict PPG

GUAYAQUIL CITY FC · PPG 1.42

LIBERTAD · PPG 0.83

⚖ HIGH DRAW RISK - evenly matched, low-scoring expected

65%

HIGH_DRAW_RISK

xG gap +0.27, combined xG 1.87 - evenly matched, low-scoring, elevated Draw risk

Win probability 1X2

Guayaquil City FC (H) 39.2%

ODDS 1.96 · IMPLIED 51.0% EV -23.2%

Draw 32.8%

ODDS 3.15 · IMPLIED 31.7% EV +3.3%

Libertad (A) 28.0%

ODDS 4.10 · IMPLIED 24.4% EV +8.9%

Match Preview & Prediction

Guayaquil City FC face Libertad in Ecuador - Liga Pro on Saturday, August 15, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Guayaquil City FC a 39% chance, the draw 33% and Libertad 28%, so Guayaquil City FC are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.1 for Guayaquil City FC and 0.8 for Libertad (1.9 total). The most likely scoreline is 0-0. There is a 34% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 45% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Guayaquil City FC are averaging 1.42 points per game versus 0.83 for Libertad. The best value bet our model finds is A/O25, with an expected value of +2.5%.

Guayaquil City FC vs Libertad Prediction— Ecuador - Liga Pro

Match Preview & Prediction

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