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Velez Sarsfield vs Defensa Y Justicia Prediction— Argentina - Liga Profesional Argentina

Clausura · Matchday 5 ·Monday, August 17, 2026, 22:15

Velez Sarsfield

PPG 1.91 · HOME

UPCOMING

Defensa Y Justicia

PPG 1.22 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Home

Model probability 54.4% vs bookmaker-implied 55.6%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-09.9%0-17.0%0-22.5%0-30.6%0-4+0.1%1 1-015.9%1-111.2%1-24.0%1-30.9%1-4+0.2%2 2-012.8%2-19.0%2-23.2%2-30.7%2-4+0.2%3 3-06.9%3-14.8%3-21.7%3-30.4%3-4+0.1%4+ 4+-04.0%4+-12.8%4+-21.0%4+-30.2%4+-4+0.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 54.4% 55.6% 1.80 -2.1%

Draw 23.9% 30.3% 3.30 -12.7%

Away win 21.7% 21.1% 4.75 +1.8%

Over 2.5 49.9% 42.0% 2.38 +18.8%

Over 3.5 28.7% 22.2% 4.50 +17.5%

BTTS 47.7% 47.6% 2.10 +0.2%

Home O1.5 47.2% 46.5% 2.15 +1.5%

Away O1.5 17.2% 22.2% 4.50 -13.6%

League track record ↗

Based on 94 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 39%

O2.5 57%

BTTS 65%

Score Hit 51%

ROI -2.0%

Bet Hit 48%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 0 31%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)1.6 xG (away)0.7 BTTS prob47.7%

H 54% / xG 1.6-0.7 / U2.5 50% / NoBTTS 48%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–0 15.9%

#2 1–1 11.2%

#3 2–0 12.8%

#4 0–0 9.9%

#5 2–1 9.0%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Velez Sarsfield1.6

Defensa Y Justicia0.7

COMBINED 2.3 xG → O2.5 PROB 49.9% · O3.5 PROB 28.7%

Form & verdict PPG

VELEZ SARSFIELD · PPG 1.91

DEFENSA Y JUSTICIA · PPG 1.22

✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage

75%

MODERATE_HOME

xG gap +0.91 - moderate Home edge

Win probability 1X2

Velez Sarsfield (H) 54.4%

ODDS 1.80 · IMPLIED 55.6% EV -2.1%

Draw 23.9%

ODDS 3.30 · IMPLIED 30.3% EV -12.7%

Defensa Y Justicia (A) 21.7%

ODDS 4.75 · IMPLIED 21.1% EV +1.8%

Match Preview & Prediction

Velez Sarsfield face Defensa Y Justicia in Argentina - Liga Profesional Argentina on Monday, August 17, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Velez Sarsfield a 54% chance, the draw 24% and Defensa Y Justicia 22%, so Velez Sarsfield are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.6 for Velez Sarsfield and 0.7 for Defensa Y Justicia (2.3 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-0. There is a 50% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 48% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Velez Sarsfield are averaging 1.91 points per game versus 1.22 for Defensa Y Justicia. The best value bet our model finds is over 2.5 goals, with an expected value of +18.8%.

Velez Sarsfield vs Defensa Y Justicia Prediction— Argentina - Liga Profesional Argentina

Match Preview & Prediction

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