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Estudiantes de Rio Cuarto vs Atletico Tucuman Prediction— Argentina - Liga Profesional Argentina

Clausura · Matchday 5 ·Monday, August 17, 2026, 17:45

Estudiantes de Rio Cuarto

PPG 0.80 · HOME

UPCOMING

Atletico Tucuman

PPG 0.70 · AWAY

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-019.7%0-118.6%0-28.8%0-32.8%0-4+0.8%1 1-013.4%1-112.7%1-26.0%1-31.9%1-4+0.5%2 2-04.6%2-14.3%2-22.0%2-30.6%2-4+0.2%3 3-01.0%3-11.0%3-20.5%3-30.1%3-4+0.0%4+ 4+-00.2%4+-10.2%4+-20.1%4+-30.0%4+-4+0.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 26.7% 35.7% 2.80 -15.1%

Draw 34.6% 35.5% 2.82 -2.4%

Away win 38.7% 35.7% 2.80 +8.4%

Over 2.5 34.2% 33.9% 2.95 +0.9%

Over 3.5 16.1% 16.0% 6.25 +0.4%

BTTS 44.6% 44.4% 2.25 +0.4%

Home O1.5 30.2% 29.0% 3.45 +4.2%

Away O1.5 26.2% 29.0% 3.45 -5.8%

League track record ↗

Based on 94 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 39%

O2.5 57%

BTTS 65%

Score Hit 51%

ROI -2.0%

Bet Hit 48%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

0 – 2 35%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)0.7 xG (away)0.9 BTTS prob44.6%

A 39% / xG 0.7-0.9 / U2.5 34% / NoBTTS 45%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 0–0 19.7%

#2 0–1 18.6%

#3 1–1 12.7%

#4 1–0 13.4%

#5 0–2 8.8%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Estudiantes de Rio Cuarto0.7

Atletico Tucuman0.9

COMBINED 1.6 xG → O2.5 PROB 34.2% · O3.5 PROB 16.1%

Form & verdict PPG

ESTUDIANTES DE RIO CUARTO · PPG 0.80

ATLETICO TUCUMAN · PPG 0.70

⚖ HIGH DRAW RISK - evenly matched, low-scoring expected

65%

HIGH_DRAW_RISK

xG gap -0.26, combined xG 1.63 - evenly matched, low-scoring, elevated Draw risk

Win probability 1X2

Estudiantes de Rio Cuarto (H) 26.7%

ODDS 2.80 · IMPLIED 35.7% EV -15.1%

Draw 34.6%

ODDS 2.82 · IMPLIED 35.5% EV -2.4%

Atletico Tucuman (A) 38.7%

ODDS 2.80 · IMPLIED 35.7% EV +8.4%

Match Preview & Prediction

Estudiantes de Rio Cuarto face Atletico Tucuman in Argentina - Liga Profesional Argentina on Monday, August 17, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Estudiantes de Rio Cuarto a 27% chance, the draw 35% and Atletico Tucuman 39%, so Atletico Tucuman are favoured to win. Expected goals are 0.7 for Estudiantes de Rio Cuarto and 0.9 for Atletico Tucuman (1.6 total). The most likely scoreline is 0-0. There is a 34% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 45% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Estudiantes de Rio Cuarto are averaging 0.80 points per game versus 0.70 for Atletico Tucuman. The best value bet our model finds is HomeO15, with an expected value of +4.2%.

Estudiantes de Rio Cuarto vs Atletico Tucuman Prediction— Argentina - Liga Profesional Argentina

Match Preview & Prediction

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