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San Lorenzo vs Union Santa Fe Prediction— Argentina - Liga Profesional Argentina

Clausura · Matchday 5 ·Saturday, August 15, 2026, 17:30

San Lorenzo

PPG 1.40 · HOME

UPCOMING

Union Santa Fe

PPG 1.00 · AWAY

// Model verdict

BTTS

Model probability 53.3% vs bookmaker-implied 48.8% — a real, if thin, edge.

+9.3% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-08.0%0-19.0%0-25.0%0-31.9%0-4+0.7%1 1-011.2%1-112.6%1-27.1%1-32.6%1-4+0.9%2 2-07.9%2-18.8%2-25.0%2-31.9%2-4+0.7%3 3-03.7%3-14.1%3-22.3%3-30.9%3-4+0.3%4+ 4+-01.8%4+-12.0%4+-21.1%4+-30.4%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 44.5% 40.3% 2.48 +10.4%

Draw 26.6% 34.0% 2.94 -13.1%

Away win 28.8% 32.8% 3.05 -7.3%

Over 2.5 49.9% 39.2% 2.55 +27.2%

Over 3.5 28.9% 20.0% 5.00 +26.7%

BTTS 53.3% 48.8% 2.05 +9.3%

Home O1.5 44.5% 35.1% 2.85 +26.8%

Away O1.5 34.7% 30.3% 3.30 +14.5%

League track record ↗

Based on 89 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 39%

O2.5 56%

BTTS 64%

Score Hit 51%

ROI -2.5%

Bet Hit 47%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 23%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)1.4 xG (away)1.1 BTTS prob53.3%

H 44% / xG 1.4-1.1 / O2.5 50% / BTTS 53%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 12.6%

#2 0–0 8.0%

#3 1–0 11.2%

#4 2–1 8.8%

#5 2–0 7.9%

Expected goals MODEL xG

San Lorenzo1.4

Union Santa Fe1.1

COMBINED 2.5 xG → O2.5 PROB 49.9% · O3.5 PROB 28.9%

Form & verdict PPG

SAN LORENZO · PPG 1.40

UNION SANTA FE · PPG 1.00

✓ INTERESTING - Balanced match with high-value opportunity

70%

BALANCED

xG gap +0.28 - no reliable favorite, elevated draw risk

Win probability 1X2

San Lorenzo (H) 44.5%

ODDS 2.48 · IMPLIED 40.3% EV +10.4%

Draw 26.6%

ODDS 2.94 · IMPLIED 34.0% EV -13.1%

Union Santa Fe (A) 28.8%

ODDS 3.05 · IMPLIED 32.8% EV -7.3%

Match Preview & Prediction

San Lorenzo face Union Santa Fe in Argentina - Liga Profesional Argentina on Saturday, August 15, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives San Lorenzo a 45% chance, the draw 27% and Union Santa Fe 29%, so San Lorenzo are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.4 for San Lorenzo and 1.1 for Union Santa Fe (2.5 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 50% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 53% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, San Lorenzo are averaging 1.40 points per game versus 1.00 for Union Santa Fe. The best value bet our model finds is BTTS/O25, with an expected value of +27.7%.

San Lorenzo vs Union Santa Fe Prediction— Argentina - Liga Profesional Argentina

Match Preview & Prediction

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