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Aldosivi vs Tigre Prediction— Argentina - Liga Profesional Argentina

Clausura · Matchday 5 ·Saturday, August 15, 2026, 17:30

Aldosivi

PPG 0.78 · HOME

UPCOMING

Tigre

PPG 1.00 · AWAY

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-021.5%0-120.7%0-29.9%0-33.2%0-4+0.9%1 1-012.4%1-111.9%1-25.7%1-31.8%1-4+0.5%2 2-03.6%2-13.4%2-21.6%2-30.5%2-4+0.2%3 3-00.7%3-10.7%3-20.3%3-30.1%3-4+0.0%4+ 4+-00.1%4+-10.1%4+-20.1%4+-30.0%4+-4+0.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 24.3% 33.9% 2.95 -17.0%

Draw 33.6% 35.5% 2.82 -5.3%

Away win 42.1% 37.7% 2.65 +11.6%

Over 2.5 34.2% 35.7% 2.80 -4.2%

Over 3.5 17.7% 17.4% 5.75 +1.1%

BTTS 44.6% 46.5% 2.15 -4.1%

Home O1.5 30.2% 29.0% 3.45 +4.2%

Away O1.5 26.2% 31.3% 3.20 -9.7%

League track record ↗

Based on 89 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 39%

O2.5 56%

BTTS 64%

Score Hit 51%

ROI -2.5%

Bet Hit 47%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

0 – 2 36%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)0.6 xG (away)1.0 BTTS prob44.6%

A 42% / xG 0.6-1.0 / U2.5 34% / NoBTTS 45%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 0–0 21.5%

#2 0–1 20.7%

#3 1–1 11.9%

#4 1–0 12.4%

#5 0–2 9.9%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Aldosivi0.6

Tigre1.0

COMBINED 1.5 xG → O2.5 PROB 34.2% · O3.5 PROB 17.7%

Form & verdict PPG

ALDOSIVI · PPG 0.78

TIGRE · PPG 1.00

⚖ HIGH DRAW RISK - evenly matched, low-scoring expected

65%

HIGH_DRAW_RISK

xG gap -0.38, combined xG 1.54 - evenly matched, low-scoring, elevated Draw risk

Win probability 1X2

Aldosivi (H) 24.3%

ODDS 2.95 · IMPLIED 33.9% EV -17.0%

Draw 33.6%

ODDS 2.82 · IMPLIED 35.5% EV -5.3%

Tigre (A) 42.1%

ODDS 2.65 · IMPLIED 37.7% EV +11.6%

Match Preview & Prediction

Aldosivi face Tigre in Argentina - Liga Profesional Argentina on Saturday, August 15, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Aldosivi a 24% chance, the draw 34% and Tigre 42%, so Tigre are favoured to win. Expected goals are 0.6 for Aldosivi and 1.0 for Tigre (1.5 total). The most likely scoreline is 0-0. There is a 34% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 45% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Aldosivi are averaging 0.78 points per game versus 1.00 for Tigre. The best value bet our model finds is HomeO15, with an expected value of +4.2%.

Aldosivi vs Tigre Prediction— Argentina - Liga Profesional Argentina

Match Preview & Prediction

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