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River Plate vs Argentinos JRS Prediction— Argentina - Liga Profesional Argentina

Clausura · Matchday 5 ·Sunday, August 16, 2026, 21:00

River Plate

PPG 1.57 · HOME

UPCOMING

Argentinos JRS

PPG 1.56 · AWAY

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-011.9%0-111.1%0-25.1%0-31.6%0-4+0.4%1 1-014.3%1-113.3%1-26.2%1-31.9%1-4+0.5%2 2-08.6%2-18.0%2-23.7%2-31.1%2-4+0.3%3 3-03.4%3-13.2%3-21.5%3-30.5%3-4+0.1%4+ 4+-01.3%4+-11.2%4+-20.6%4+-30.2%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 42.7% 52.6% 1.90 -18.9%

Draw 27.9% 32.3% 3.10 -8.1%

Away win 29.4% 22.2% 4.50 +19.4%

Over 2.5 45.9% 37.7% 2.65 +21.6%

Over 3.5 26.0% 19.0% 5.25 +21.9%

BTTS 49.2% 44.4% 2.25 +10.7%

Home O1.5 31.7% 42.0% 2.38 -24.6%

Away O1.5 25.6% 21.1% 4.75 +13.0%

League track record ↗

Based on 89 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 39%

O2.5 56%

BTTS 64%

Score Hit 51%

ROI -2.5%

Bet Hit 47%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 0 26%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)1.2 xG (away)0.9 BTTS prob49.2%

H 43% / xG 1.2-0.9 / U2.5 46% / NoBTTS 49%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 13.3%

#2 0–0 11.9%

#3 1–0 14.3%

#4 0–1 11.1%

#5 2–0 8.6%

Expected goals MODEL xG

River Plate1.2

Argentinos JRS0.9

COMBINED 2.1 xG → O2.5 PROB 45.9% · O3.5 PROB 26.0%

Form & verdict PPG

RIVER PLATE · PPG 1.57

ARGENTINOS JRS · PPG 1.56

⚖ HIGH DRAW RISK - evenly matched, low-scoring expected

65%

HIGH_DRAW_RISK

xG gap +0.27, combined xG 2.13 - evenly matched, low-scoring, elevated Draw risk

Win probability 1X2

River Plate (H) 42.7%

ODDS 1.90 · IMPLIED 52.6% EV -18.9%

Draw 27.9%

ODDS 3.10 · IMPLIED 32.3% EV -8.1%

Argentinos JRS (A) 29.4%

ODDS 4.50 · IMPLIED 22.2% EV +19.4%

Match Preview & Prediction

River Plate face Argentinos JRS in Argentina - Liga Profesional Argentina on Sunday, August 16, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives River Plate a 43% chance, the draw 28% and Argentinos JRS 29%, so River Plate are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.2 for River Plate and 0.9 for Argentinos JRS (2.1 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 46% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 49% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, River Plate are averaging 1.57 points per game versus 1.56 for Argentinos JRS. The best value bet our model finds is BTTS/O25, with an expected value of +25.4%.

River Plate vs Argentinos JRS Prediction— Argentina - Liga Profesional Argentina

Match Preview & Prediction

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