Today / Argentina - Liga Profesional Argentina / Estudiantes L.P. vs Gimnasia L.P.

Estudiantes L.P. vs Gimnasia L.P. Prediction— Argentina - Liga Profesional Argentina

Clausura · Matchday 5 ·Saturday, August 15, 2026, 19:45

Estudiantes L.P.

PPG 1.73 · HOME

UPCOMING

Gimnasia L.P.

PPG 1.58 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Home

Model probability 50.1% vs bookmaker-implied 51.0%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-013.8%0-19.1%0-23.0%0-30.7%0-4+0.1%1 1-018.3%1-112.0%1-23.9%1-30.9%1-4+0.2%2 2-012.1%2-17.9%2-22.6%2-30.6%2-4+0.1%3 3-05.3%3-13.5%3-21.1%3-30.3%3-4+0.0%4+ 4+-02.4%4+-11.5%4+-20.5%4+-30.1%4+-4+0.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 50.1% 51.0% 1.96 -1.8%

Draw 27.4% 32.3% 3.10 -9.0%

Away win 22.5% 23.8% 4.20 -3.3%

Over 2.5 42.7% 39.2% 2.55 +8.9%

Over 3.5 21.1% 20.0% 5.00 +3.3%

BTTS 47.7% 46.5% 2.15 +2.5%

Home O1.5 37.9% 42.6% 2.35 -10.9%

Away O1.5 17.2% 23.1% 4.33 -15.3%

League track record ↗

Based on 89 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 39%

O2.5 56%

BTTS 64%

Score Hit 51%

ROI -2.5%

Bet Hit 47%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 0 37%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)1.3 xG (away)0.7 BTTS prob47.7%

H 50% / xG 1.3-0.7 / U2.5 43% / NoBTTS 48%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–0 18.3%

#2 0–0 13.8%

#3 1–1 12.0%

#4 2–0 12.1%

#5 2–1 7.9%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Estudiantes L.P.1.3

Gimnasia L.P.0.7

COMBINED 2.0 xG → O2.5 PROB 42.7% · O3.5 PROB 21.1%

Form & verdict PPG

ESTUDIANTES L.P. · PPG 1.73

GIMNASIA L.P. · PPG 1.58

✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage

75%

MODERATE_HOME

xG gap +0.67 - moderate Home edge

Win probability 1X2

Estudiantes L.P. (H) 50.1%

ODDS 1.96 · IMPLIED 51.0% EV -1.8%

Draw 27.4%

ODDS 3.10 · IMPLIED 32.3% EV -9.0%

Gimnasia L.P. (A) 22.5%

ODDS 4.20 · IMPLIED 23.8% EV -3.3%

Match Preview & Prediction

Estudiantes L.P. face Gimnasia L.P. in Argentina - Liga Profesional Argentina on Saturday, August 15, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Estudiantes L.P. a 50% chance, the draw 27% and Gimnasia L.P. 23%, so Estudiantes L.P. are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.3 for Estudiantes L.P. and 0.7 for Gimnasia L.P. (2.0 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-0. There is a 43% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 48% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Estudiantes L.P. are averaging 1.73 points per game versus 1.58 for Gimnasia L.P.. The best value bet our model finds is over 2.5 goals, with an expected value of +8.9%.

Estudiantes L.P. vs Gimnasia L.P. Prediction— Argentina - Liga Profesional Argentina

Match Preview & Prediction

More Argentina - Liga Profesional Argentina Predictions