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Lanus vs Independiente Prediction— Argentina - Liga Profesional Argentina

Clausura · Matchday 5 ·Monday, August 17, 2026, 20:00

Lanus

PPG 1.60 · HOME

UPCOMING

Independiente

PPG 1.09 · AWAY

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-010.0%0-18.8%0-23.9%0-31.1%0-4+0.3%1 1-014.3%1-112.5%1-25.5%1-31.6%1-4+0.4%2 2-010.1%2-18.9%2-23.9%2-31.1%2-4+0.3%3 3-04.8%3-14.2%3-21.8%3-30.5%3-4+0.1%4+ 4+-02.3%4+-12.0%4+-20.9%4+-30.3%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 48.4% 42.7% 2.34 +13.3%

Draw 27.5% 35.0% 2.86 -12.8%

Away win 24.1% 29.0% 3.45 -10.1%

Over 2.5 45.9% 36.4% 2.75 +26.2%

Over 3.5 26.0% 18.2% 5.50 +25.8%

BTTS 48.8% 46.5% 2.15 +4.9%

Home O1.5 45.1% 35.7% 2.80 +26.3%

Away O1.5 23.5% 26.0% 3.85 -5.7%

League track record ↗

Based on 94 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 39%

O2.5 57%

BTTS 65%

Score Hit 51%

ROI -2.0%

Bet Hit 48%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 0 29%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)1.4 xG (away)0.9 BTTS prob48.8%

H 48% / xG 1.4-0.9 / U2.5 46% / NoBTTS 49%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 12.5%

#2 1–0 14.3%

#3 0–0 10.0%

#4 2–0 10.1%

#5 2–1 8.9%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Lanus1.4

Independiente0.9

COMBINED 2.3 xG → O2.5 PROB 45.9% · O3.5 PROB 26.0%

Form & verdict PPG

LANUS · PPG 1.60

INDEPENDIENTE · PPG 1.09

✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage

75%

MODERATE_HOME

xG gap +0.54 - moderate Home edge

Win probability 1X2

Lanus (H) 48.4%

ODDS 2.34 · IMPLIED 42.7% EV +13.3%

Draw 27.5%

ODDS 2.86 · IMPLIED 35.0% EV -12.8%

Independiente (A) 24.1%

ODDS 3.45 · IMPLIED 29.0% EV -10.1%

Match Preview & Prediction

Lanus face Independiente in Argentina - Liga Profesional Argentina on Monday, August 17, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Lanus a 48% chance, the draw 28% and Independiente 24%, so Lanus are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.4 for Lanus and 0.9 for Independiente (2.3 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 46% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 49% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Lanus are averaging 1.60 points per game versus 1.09 for Independiente. The best value bet our model finds is BTTS/O25, with an expected value of +28.6%.

Lanus vs Independiente Prediction— Argentina - Liga Profesional Argentina

Match Preview & Prediction

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