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Sarmiento Junin vs Huracan Prediction— Argentina - Liga Profesional Argentina

Clausura · Matchday 5 ·Sunday, August 16, 2026, 18:00

Sarmiento Junin

PPG 1.90 · HOME

UPCOMING

Huracan

PPG 1.25 · AWAY

// Model verdict

BTTS

Model probability 51.2% vs bookmaker-implied 42.0% — a clear edge.

+21.9% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-011.6%0-112.5%0-26.7%0-32.4%0-4+0.8%1 1-012.5%1-113.5%1-27.2%1-32.6%1-4+0.9%2 2-06.7%2-17.2%2-23.9%2-31.4%2-4+0.5%3 3-02.4%3-12.6%3-21.4%3-30.5%3-4+0.2%4+ 4+-00.8%4+-10.9%4+-20.5%4+-30.2%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 36.5% 33.6% 2.98 +8.8%

Draw 29.0% 36.2% 2.76 -12.0%

Away win 34.5% 37.3% 2.68 -7.5%

Over 2.5 45.9% 32.3% 3.10 +42.3%

Over 3.5 26.4% 15.4% 6.50 +43.0%

BTTS 51.2% 42.0% 2.38 +21.9%

Home O1.5 30.2% 26.3% 3.80 +14.8%

Away O1.5 34.0% 28.6% 3.50 +19.0%

League track record ↗

Based on 89 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 39%

O2.5 56%

BTTS 64%

Score Hit 51%

ROI -2.5%

Bet Hit 47%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 2 32%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)1.1 xG (away)1.1 BTTS prob51.2%

D 29% / xG 1.1-1.1 / U2.5 46% / BTTS 51%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 13.5%

#2 0–0 11.6%

#3 0–1 12.5%

#4 1–0 12.5%

#5 1–2 7.2%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Sarmiento Junin1.1

Huracan1.1

COMBINED 2.2 xG → O2.5 PROB 45.9% · O3.5 PROB 26.4%

Form & verdict PPG

SARMIENTO JUNIN · PPG 1.90

HURACAN · PPG 1.25

⚖ HIGH DRAW RISK - evenly matched, low-scoring expected

65%

HIGH_DRAW_RISK

xG gap -0.00, combined xG 2.15 - evenly matched, low-scoring, elevated Draw risk

Win probability 1X2

Sarmiento Junin (H) 36.5%

ODDS 2.98 · IMPLIED 33.6% EV +8.8%

Draw 29.0%

ODDS 2.76 · IMPLIED 36.2% EV -12.0%

Huracan (A) 34.5%

ODDS 2.68 · IMPLIED 37.3% EV -7.5%

Match Preview & Prediction

Sarmiento Junin face Huracan in Argentina - Liga Profesional Argentina on Sunday, August 16, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Sarmiento Junin a 37% chance, the draw 29% and Huracan 35%, so Sarmiento Junin are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.1 for Sarmiento Junin and 1.1 for Huracan (2.2 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 46% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 51% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Sarmiento Junin are averaging 1.90 points per game versus 1.25 for Huracan. The best value bet our model finds is over 3.5 goals, with an expected value of +43.0%.

Sarmiento Junin vs Huracan Prediction— Argentina - Liga Profesional Argentina

Match Preview & Prediction

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