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Platense vs Boca Juniors Prediction— Argentina - Liga Profesional Argentina

Clausura · Matchday 5 ·Sunday, August 16, 2026, 00:15

Platense

PPG 0.90 · HOME

UPCOMING

Boca Juniors

PPG 1.70 · AWAY

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-012.4%0-116.1%0-210.5%0-34.6%0-4+2.0%1 1-09.7%1-112.7%1-28.3%1-33.6%1-4+1.6%2 2-03.8%2-15.0%2-23.2%2-31.4%2-4+0.6%3 3-01.0%3-11.3%3-20.8%3-30.4%3-4+0.2%4+ 4+-00.2%4+-10.3%4+-20.2%4+-30.1%4+-4+0.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 25.1% 26.0% 3.85 -2.0%

Draw 28.1% 34.2% 2.92 -10.8%

Away win 46.8% 46.7% 2.14 +0.1%

Over 2.5 47.1% 35.1% 2.85 +34.2%

Over 3.5 28.7% 17.4% 5.75 +39.0%

BTTS 49.2% 43.5% 2.30 +13.2%

Home O1.5 30.2% 23.1% 4.33 +30.8%

Away O1.5 39.8% 37.0% 2.70 +7.5%

League track record ↗

Based on 89 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 39%

O2.5 56%

BTTS 64%

Score Hit 51%

ROI -2.5%

Bet Hit 47%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

0 – 2 28%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)0.8 xG (away)1.3 BTTS prob49.2%

A 47% / xG 0.8-1.3 / U2.5 47% / NoBTTS 49%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 12.7%

#2 0–0 12.4%

#3 0–1 16.1%

#4 0–2 10.5%

#5 1–2 8.3%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Platense0.8

Boca Juniors1.3

COMBINED 2.1 xG → O2.5 PROB 47.1% · O3.5 PROB 28.7%

Form & verdict PPG

PLATENSE · PPG 0.90

BOCA JUNIORS · PPG 1.70

⚠ RISKY - Form concerns with home team

65%

DANGER

xG gap -0.52 - moderate Away edge

Win probability 1X2

Platense (H) 25.1%

ODDS 3.85 · IMPLIED 26.0% EV -2.0%

Draw 28.1%

ODDS 2.92 · IMPLIED 34.2% EV -10.8%

Boca Juniors (A) 46.8%

ODDS 2.14 · IMPLIED 46.7% EV +0.1%

Match Preview & Prediction

Platense face Boca Juniors in Argentina - Liga Profesional Argentina on Sunday, August 16, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Platense a 25% chance, the draw 28% and Boca Juniors 47%, so Boca Juniors are favoured to win. Expected goals are 0.8 for Platense and 1.3 for Boca Juniors (2.1 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 47% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 49% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Platense are averaging 0.90 points per game versus 1.70 for Boca Juniors. The best value bet our model finds is over 3.5 goals, with an expected value of +39.0%.

Platense vs Boca Juniors Prediction— Argentina - Liga Profesional Argentina

Match Preview & Prediction

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