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Barracas Central vs Rosario Central Prediction— Argentina - Liga Profesional Argentina

Clausura · Matchday 5 ·Sunday, August 16, 2026, 23:15

Barracas Central

PPG 1.56 · HOME

UPCOMING

Rosario Central

PPG 1.55 · AWAY

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-014.1%0-112.4%0-25.4%0-31.6%0-4+0.4%1 1-015.3%1-113.4%1-25.9%1-31.7%1-4+0.5%2 2-08.3%2-17.2%2-23.2%2-30.9%2-4+0.2%3 3-03.0%3-12.6%3-21.1%3-30.3%3-4+0.1%4+ 4+-01.0%4+-10.9%4+-20.4%4+-30.1%4+-4+0.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 40.3% 34.0% 2.94 +18.5%

Draw 32.2% 35.5% 2.82 -9.2%

Away win 27.5% 37.6% 2.66 -16.1%

Over 2.5 37.0% 35.7% 2.80 +3.6%

Over 3.5 19.7% 17.4% 5.75 +8.0%

BTTS 47.7% 45.5% 2.20 +4.9%

Home O1.5 30.2% 28.6% 3.50 +5.7%

Away O1.5 23.3% 31.3% 3.20 -15.3%

League track record ↗

Based on 90 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 39%

O2.5 57%

BTTS 64%

Score Hit 50%

ROI -2.5%

Bet Hit 47%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 0 35%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)1.1 xG (away)0.9 BTTS prob47.7%

H 40% / xG 1.1-0.9 / U2.5 37% / NoBTTS 48%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 0–0 14.1%

#2 1–1 13.4%

#3 1–0 15.3%

#4 0–1 12.4%

#5 2–0 8.3%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Barracas Central1.1

Rosario Central0.9

COMBINED 2.0 xG → O2.5 PROB 37.0% · O3.5 PROB 19.7%

Form & verdict PPG

BARRACAS CENTRAL · PPG 1.56

ROSARIO CENTRAL · PPG 1.55

⚖ HIGH DRAW RISK - evenly matched, low-scoring expected

65%

HIGH_DRAW_RISK

xG gap +0.21, combined xG 1.96 - evenly matched, low-scoring, elevated Draw risk

Win probability 1X2

Barracas Central (H) 40.3%

ODDS 2.94 · IMPLIED 34.0% EV +18.5%

Draw 32.2%

ODDS 2.82 · IMPLIED 35.5% EV -9.2%

Rosario Central (A) 27.5%

ODDS 2.66 · IMPLIED 37.6% EV -16.1%

Match Preview & Prediction

Barracas Central face Rosario Central in Argentina - Liga Profesional Argentina on Sunday, August 16, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Barracas Central a 40% chance, the draw 32% and Rosario Central 28%, so Barracas Central are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.1 for Barracas Central and 0.9 for Rosario Central (2.0 total). The most likely scoreline is 0-0. There is a 37% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 48% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Barracas Central are averaging 1.56 points per game versus 1.55 for Rosario Central. The best value bet our model finds is BTTS/O25, with an expected value of +12.0%.

Barracas Central vs Rosario Central Prediction— Argentina - Liga Profesional Argentina

Match Preview & Prediction

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