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San Marcos de Arica vs Union San Felipe Prediction— Chile - Liga de Ascenso

Matchday 20 ·Thursday, August 13, 2026, 00:30

San Marcos de Arica

PPG 1.78 · HOME

UPCOMING

Union San Felipe

PPG 0.40 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Home

Model probability 70.4% vs bookmaker-implied 65.4% — a real, if thin, edge.

+7.7% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-07.7%0-13.3%0-20.7%0-30.1%0-4+0.0%1 1-016.4%1-17.1%1-21.6%1-30.2%1-4+0.0%2 2-017.4%2-17.6%2-21.7%2-30.2%2-4+0.0%3 3-012.4%3-15.4%3-21.2%3-30.2%3-4+0.0%4+ 4+-010.8%4+-14.7%4+-21.0%4+-30.1%4+-4+0.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 70.4% 65.4% 1.53 +7.7%

Draw 21.5% 26.7% 3.75 -11.6%

Away win 8.1% 17.9% 5.60 -32.8%

Over 2.5 53.1% 54.1% 1.85 -1.8%

Over 3.5 31.0% 31.3% 3.20 -0.8%

BTTS 44.6% 54.1% 1.85 -17.5%

Home O1.5 59.8% 59.9% 1.67 -0.1%

Away O1.5 11.7% 25.0% 4.00 -31.9%

League track record ↗

Based on 25 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 36%

O2.5 44%

BTTS 48%

Score Hit 48%

ROI -20.3%

Bet Hit 46%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 0 48%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)2.1 xG (away)0.4 BTTS prob44.6%

H 70% / xG 2.1-0.4 / O2.5 53% / NoBTTS 45%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 2–0 17.4%

#2 1–0 16.4%

#3 3–0 12.4%

#4 0–0 7.7%

#5 1–1 7.1%

Expected goals MODEL xG

San Marcos de Arica2.1

Union San Felipe0.4

COMBINED 2.6 xG → O2.5 PROB 53.1% · O3.5 PROB 31.0%

Form & verdict PPG

SAN MARCOS DE ARICA · PPG 1.78

UNION SAN FELIPE · PPG 0.40

🎯 STRONG BET - PPG + Poisson + EV aligned

98%

STRONG_HOME

xG gap +1.69 for Home, form 1.78 vs 0.40 - Strong consensus

Win probability 1X2

San Marcos de Arica (H) 70.4%

ODDS 1.53 · IMPLIED 65.4% EV +7.7%

Draw 21.5%

ODDS 3.75 · IMPLIED 26.7% EV -11.6%

Union San Felipe (A) 8.1%

ODDS 5.60 · IMPLIED 17.9% EV -32.8%

Match Preview & Prediction

San Marcos de Arica face Union San Felipe in Chile - Liga de Ascenso on Thursday, August 13, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives San Marcos de Arica a 70% chance, the draw 22% and Union San Felipe 8%, so San Marcos de Arica are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.1 for San Marcos de Arica and 0.4 for Union San Felipe (2.6 total). The most likely scoreline is 2-0. There is a 53% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 45% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, San Marcos de Arica are averaging 1.78 points per game versus 0.40 for Union San Felipe.

San Marcos de Arica vs Union San Felipe Prediction— Chile - Liga de Ascenso

Match Preview & Prediction

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