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Tukums vs Daugavpils Prediction— Latvia - Virsliga

Regular Season - 8 ·Tuesday, April 21, 2026, 15:00

Tukums

PPG 0.50 · HOME

1 – 1

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · O2.5

Daugavpils

PPG 1.00 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 3.9 puts the goal expectation well above the line. Model probability 75.3% vs bookmaker-implied 60.6% — a clear edge.

+24.2% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-01.9%0-14.2%0-24.6%0-33.3%0-4+2.9%1 1-03.5%1-17.5%1-28.1%1-35.8%1-4+5.2%2 2-03.1%2-16.6%2-27.2%2-35.2%2-4+4.6%3 3-01.8%3-13.9%3-24.3%3-33.1%3-4+2.7%4+ 4+-01.2%4+-12.6%4+-22.8%4+-32.0%4+-4+1.8%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 32.3% 42.0% 2.38 -23.1%

Draw 20.5% 28.6% 3.50 -28.2%

Away win 47.2% 39.2% 2.55 +20.4%

Over 2.5 75.3% 60.6% 1.65 +24.2%

Over 3.5 55.4% 38.5% 2.60 +44.0%

BTTS 73.5% 66.7% 1.50 +10.3%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 77 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 64%

O2.5 61%

BTTS 58%

Score Hit 55%

ROI -4.8%

Bet Hit 65%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 3 64%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 1-1

xG (home)1.8 xG (away)2.2 BTTS prob73.5%

A 47% / xG 1.8-2.2 / O2.5 75% / BTTS 74%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–2 8.1%

#2 1–1✓ 7.5%

#3 2–2 7.2%

#4 2–1 6.6%

#5 1–3 5.8%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Tukums1.8

Daugavpils2.2

COMBINED 3.9 xG → O2.5 PROB 75.3% · O3.5 PROB 55.4%

Form & verdict PPG

TUKUMS · PPG 0.50

DAUGAVPILS · PPG 1.00

⚠ RISKY - Form concerns with home team

65%

DANGER

Home weakness: POOR (0.50) vs Away AVERAGE (1.00)

Win probability 1X2

Tukums (H) 32.3%

ODDS 2.38 · IMPLIED 42.0% EV -23.1%

Draw 20.5%

ODDS 3.50 · IMPLIED 28.6% EV -28.2%

Daugavpils (A) 47.2%

ODDS 2.55 · IMPLIED 39.2% EV +20.4%

Match Preview & Prediction

Tukums face Daugavpils in Latvia - Virsliga on Tuesday, April 21, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Tukums a 32% chance, the draw 21% and Daugavpils 47%, so Daugavpils are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.8 for Tukums and 2.2 for Daugavpils (3.9 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-2. There is a 75% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 74% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Tukums are averaging 0.50 points per game versus 1.00 for Daugavpils. The best value bet our model finds is over 3.5 goals, with an expected value of +44.0%. This match finished 1-1.

Tukums vs Daugavpils Prediction— Latvia - Virsliga

Match Preview & Prediction

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