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Throttur Reykjavik vs Fylkir Prediction— Iceland - 1. Deild

Matchday 19 ·Monday, August 17, 2026, 19:15

Throttur Reykjavik

PPG 2.22 · HOME

UPCOMING

Fylkir

PPG 1.67 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 3.4 puts the goal expectation well above the line. Model probability 63.5% vs bookmaker-implied 66.7%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-03.4%0-13.7%0-22.0%0-30.7%0-4+0.3%1 1-07.8%1-18.5%1-24.6%1-31.7%1-4+0.6%2 2-09.0%2-19.7%2-25.3%2-31.9%2-4+0.7%3 3-06.8%3-17.4%3-24.0%3-31.5%3-4+0.5%4+ 4+-06.7%4+-17.3%4+-24.0%4+-31.4%4+-4+0.5%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 55.7% 43.5% 2.30 +28.1%

Draw 22.1% 27.0% 3.70 -10.9%

Away win 22.2% 39.2% 2.55 -26.0%

Over 2.5 63.5% 66.7% 1.50 -4.8%

Over 3.5 41.4% 45.5% 2.20 -8.9%

BTTS 61.6% 70.4% 1.42 -12.5%

Home O1.5 63.0% 55.6% 1.80 +13.4%

Away O1.5 34.3% 51.8% 1.93 -33.8%

League track record ↗

Based on 52 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 42%

O2.5 64%

BTTS 58%

Score Hit 27%

ROI -2.1%

Bet Hit 60%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 1 56%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)2.3 xG (away)1.1 BTTS prob61.6%

H 56% / xG 2.3-1.1 / O2.5 64% / BTTS 62%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 8.5%

#2 2–1 9.7%

#3 2–0 9.0%

#4 3–1 7.4%

#5 3–0 6.8%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Throttur Reykjavik2.3

Fylkir1.1

COMBINED 3.4 xG → O2.5 PROB 63.5% · O3.5 PROB 41.4%

Form & verdict PPG

THROTTUR REYKJAVIK · PPG 2.22

FYLKIR · PPG 1.67

✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage

75%

MODERATE_HOME

xG gap +1.20 - moderate Home edge

Win probability 1X2

Throttur Reykjavik (H) 55.7%

ODDS 2.30 · IMPLIED 43.5% EV +28.1%

Draw 22.1%

ODDS 3.70 · IMPLIED 27.0% EV -10.9%

Fylkir (A) 22.2%

ODDS 2.55 · IMPLIED 39.2% EV -26.0%

Match Preview & Prediction

Throttur Reykjavik face Fylkir in Iceland - 1. Deild on Monday, August 17, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Throttur Reykjavik a 56% chance, the draw 22% and Fylkir 22%, so Throttur Reykjavik are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.3 for Throttur Reykjavik and 1.1 for Fylkir (3.4 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 64% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 62% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Throttur Reykjavik are averaging 2.22 points per game versus 1.67 for Fylkir. The best value bet our model finds is H/O25, with an expected value of +28.9%.

Throttur Reykjavik vs Fylkir Prediction— Iceland - 1. Deild

Match Preview & Prediction

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