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Vestri vs IR Reykjavik Prediction— Iceland - 1. Deild

Matchday 18 ·Thursday, August 13, 2026, 18:00

Vestri

PPG 1.62 · HOME

UPCOMING

IR Reykjavik

PPG 0.50 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 4.4 puts the goal expectation well above the line. Model probability 71.6% vs bookmaker-implied 74.1%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-01.2%0-12.0%0-21.7%0-31.0%0-4+0.6%1 1-03.2%1-15.5%1-24.6%1-32.6%1-4+1.6%2 2-04.4%2-17.5%2-26.4%2-33.6%2-4+2.3%3 3-04.0%3-16.9%3-25.8%3-33.3%3-4+2.1%4+ 4+-05.4%4+-19.2%4+-27.8%4+-34.4%4+-4+2.8%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 53.6% 44.4% 2.25 +20.6%

Draw 20.8% 26.0% 3.85 -11.9%

Away win 25.6% 40.0% 2.50 -21.6%

Over 2.5 71.6% 74.1% 1.35 -3.3%

Over 3.5 51.5% 54.1% 1.85 -4.7%

BTTS 69.4% 76.9% 1.30 -9.8%

Home O1.5 63.4% 60.6% 1.65 +4.6%

Away O1.5 47.7% 58.8% 1.70 -18.9%

League track record ↗

Based on 46 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 44%

O2.5 65%

BTTS 59%

Score Hit 28%

ROI 8.8%

Bet Hit 67%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 2 63%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)2.7 xG (away)1.7 BTTS prob69.4%

H 54% / xG 2.7-1.7 / O2.5 72% / BTTS 69%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 2–1 7.5%

#2 3–1 6.9%

#3 2–2 6.4%

#4 1–1 5.5%

#5 3–2 5.8%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Vestri2.7

IR Reykjavik1.7

COMBINED 4.4 xG → O2.5 PROB 71.6% · O3.5 PROB 51.5%

Form & verdict PPG

VESTRI · PPG 1.62

IR REYKJAVIK · PPG 0.50

✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage

75%

MODERATE_HOME

xG gap +1.05 - moderate Home edge

Win probability 1X2

Vestri (H) 53.6%

ODDS 2.25 · IMPLIED 44.4% EV +20.6%

Draw 20.8%

ODDS 3.85 · IMPLIED 26.0% EV -11.9%

IR Reykjavik (A) 25.6%

ODDS 2.50 · IMPLIED 40.0% EV -21.6%

Match Preview & Prediction

Vestri face IR Reykjavik in Iceland - 1. Deild on Thursday, August 13, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Vestri a 54% chance, the draw 21% and IR Reykjavik 26%, so Vestri are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.7 for Vestri and 1.7 for IR Reykjavik (4.4 total). The most likely scoreline is 2-1. There is a 72% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 69% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Vestri are averaging 1.62 points per game versus 0.50 for IR Reykjavik. The best value bet our model finds is H/O25, with an expected value of +32.4%.

Vestri vs IR Reykjavik Prediction— Iceland - 1. Deild

Match Preview & Prediction

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