Today / Iceland - 1. Deild / IR Reykjavik vs Njardvik

IR Reykjavik vs Njardvik Prediction— Iceland - 1. Deild

Matchday 19 ·Monday, August 17, 2026, 18:00

IR Reykjavik

PPG 1.67 · HOME

UPCOMING

Njardvik

PPG 1.11 · AWAY

// Model verdict

BTTS

Model probability 61.6% vs bookmaker-implied 75.2%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-04.6%0-16.7%0-24.8%0-32.3%0-4+1.2%1 1-07.5%1-110.9%1-27.9%1-33.8%1-4+1.9%2 2-06.1%2-18.9%2-26.4%2-33.1%2-4+1.5%3 3-03.3%3-14.8%3-23.5%3-31.7%3-4+0.8%4+ 4+-02.0%4+-12.8%4+-22.1%4+-31.0%4+-4+0.5%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 43.9% 35.7% 2.80 +22.9%

Draw 23.6% 26.3% 3.80 -6.2%

Away win 32.6% 47.6% 2.10 -31.5%

Over 2.5 61.2% 72.5% 1.38 -15.5%

Over 3.5 38.4% 50.0% 2.00 -23.2%

BTTS 61.6% 75.2% 1.33 -18.1%

Home O1.5 47.2% 54.1% 1.85 -12.7%

Away O1.5 42.6% 61.7% 1.62 -31.0%

League track record ↗

Based on 52 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 42%

O2.5 64%

BTTS 58%

Score Hit 27%

ROI -2.1%

Bet Hit 60%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 50%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)1.6 xG (away)1.4 BTTS prob61.6%

H 44% / xG 1.6-1.4 / O2.5 61% / BTTS 62%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 10.9%

#2 2–1 8.9%

#3 1–2 7.9%

#4 2–2 6.4%

#5 0–0 4.6%

Expected goals MODEL xG

IR Reykjavik1.6

Njardvik1.4

COMBINED 3.1 xG → O2.5 PROB 61.2% · O3.5 PROB 38.4%

Form & verdict PPG

IR REYKJAVIK · PPG 1.67

NJARDVIK · PPG 1.11

✓ FAIR - Balanced matchup, limited value

60%

BALANCED

xG gap +0.19 - no reliable favorite, elevated draw risk

Win probability 1X2

IR Reykjavik (H) 43.9%

ODDS 2.80 · IMPLIED 35.7% EV +22.9%

Draw 23.6%

ODDS 3.80 · IMPLIED 26.3% EV -6.2%

Njardvik (A) 32.6%

ODDS 2.10 · IMPLIED 47.6% EV -31.5%

Match Preview & Prediction

IR Reykjavik face Njardvik in Iceland - 1. Deild on Monday, August 17, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives IR Reykjavik a 44% chance, the draw 24% and Njardvik 33%, so IR Reykjavik are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.6 for IR Reykjavik and 1.4 for Njardvik (3.1 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 61% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 62% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, IR Reykjavik are averaging 1.67 points per game versus 1.11 for Njardvik. The best value bet our model finds is H/O25, with an expected value of +1.8%.

IR Reykjavik vs Njardvik Prediction— Iceland - 1. Deild

Match Preview & Prediction

More Iceland - 1. Deild Predictions