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Afturelding vs HK Kopavogur Prediction— Iceland - 1. Deild

Matchday 19 ·Monday, August 17, 2026, 19:15

Afturelding

PPG 2.38 · HOME

UPCOMING

HK Kopavogur

PPG 0.67 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 5.8 puts the goal expectation well above the line. Model probability 82.1% vs bookmaker-implied 78.1% — a real, if thin, edge.

+5.1% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-00.3%0-10.5%0-20.5%0-30.3%0-4+0.2%1 1-01.3%1-12.2%1-21.9%1-31.1%1-4+0.7%2 2-02.5%2-14.4%2-23.9%2-32.3%2-4+1.5%3 3-03.4%3-15.9%3-25.2%3-33.0%3-4+2.0%4+ 4+-09.9%4+-117.3%4+-215.2%4+-38.9%4+-4+5.8%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 68.6% 55.6% 1.80 +23.5%

Draw 15.9% 24.4% 4.10 -20.9%

Away win 15.5% 30.3% 3.30 -29.3%

Over 2.5 82.1% 78.1% 1.28 +5.1%

Over 3.5 65.0% 58.8% 1.70 +10.5%

BTTS 69.4% 78.1% 1.28 -11.2%

Home O1.5 80.3% 71.4% 1.40 +12.4%

Away O1.5 47.7% 54.6% 1.83 -12.7%

League track record ↗

Based on 52 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 42%

O2.5 64%

BTTS 58%

Score Hit 27%

ROI -2.1%

Bet Hit 60%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

4 – 1 71%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)4.0 xG (away)1.8 BTTS prob69.4%

H 69% / xG 4.0-1.8 / O2.5 82% / BTTS 69%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 4–1 5.9%

#2 3–1 5.9%

#3 4–2 5.2%

#4 3–2 5.2%

#5 5–1 4.8%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Afturelding4.0

HK Kopavogur1.8

COMBINED 5.8 xG → O2.5 PROB 82.1% · O3.5 PROB 65.0%

Form & verdict PPG

AFTURELDING · PPG 2.38

HK KOPAVOGUR · PPG 0.67

🎯 STRONG BET - PPG + Poisson + EV aligned

98%

STRONG_HOME

xG gap +2.26 for Home, form 2.38 vs 0.67 - Strong consensus

Win probability 1X2

Afturelding (H) 68.6%

ODDS 1.80 · IMPLIED 55.6% EV +23.5%

Draw 15.9%

ODDS 4.10 · IMPLIED 24.4% EV -20.9%

HK Kopavogur (A) 15.5%

ODDS 3.30 · IMPLIED 30.3% EV -29.3%

Match Preview & Prediction

Afturelding face HK Kopavogur in Iceland - 1. Deild on Monday, August 17, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Afturelding a 69% chance, the draw 16% and HK Kopavogur 16%, so Afturelding are favoured to win. Expected goals are 4.0 for Afturelding and 1.8 for HK Kopavogur (5.8 total). The most likely scoreline is 4-1. There is a 82% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 69% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Afturelding are averaging 2.38 points per game versus 0.67 for HK Kopavogur. The best value bet our model finds is H/O25, with an expected value of +33.3%.

Afturelding vs HK Kopavogur Prediction— Iceland - 1. Deild

Match Preview & Prediction

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