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Grindavik vs Throttur Reykjavik Prediction— Iceland - 1. Deild

Matchday 18 ·Thursday, August 13, 2026, 18:00

Grindavik

PPG 1.25 · HOME

UPCOMING

Throttur Reykjavik

PPG 1.75 · AWAY

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-011.3%0-114.8%0-29.7%0-34.2%0-4+1.8%1 1-09.8%1-112.9%1-28.4%1-33.7%1-4+1.6%2 2-04.3%2-15.6%2-23.7%2-31.6%2-4+0.7%3 3-01.2%3-11.6%3-21.1%3-30.5%3-4+0.2%4+ 4+-00.3%4+-10.4%4+-20.3%4+-30.1%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 25.0% 22.7% 4.40 +6.0%

Draw 28.1% 23.8% 4.20 +10.8%

Away win 46.8% 63.7% 1.57 -26.5%

Over 2.5 49.9% 70.4% 1.42 -29.1%

Over 3.5 28.7% 47.6% 2.10 -23.8%

BTTS 49.2% 69.0% 1.45 -28.7%

Home O1.5 30.2% 39.2% 2.55 -23.0%

Away O1.5 40.4% 70.4% 1.42 -42.6%

League track record ↗

Based on 46 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 44%

O2.5 65%

BTTS 59%

Score Hit 28%

ROI 8.8%

Bet Hit 67%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

0 – 2 25%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)0.9 xG (away)1.3 BTTS prob49.2%

A 47% / xG 0.9-1.3 / U2.5 50% / NoBTTS 49%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 12.9%

#2 0–0 11.3%

#3 0–1 14.8%

#4 0–2 9.7%

#5 1–2 8.4%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Grindavik0.9

Throttur Reykjavik1.3

COMBINED 2.2 xG → O2.5 PROB 49.9% · O3.5 PROB 28.7%

Form & verdict PPG

GRINDAVIK · PPG 1.25

THROTTUR REYKJAVIK · PPG 1.75

🎯 STRONG BET - Draw signal + Draw value aligned

80%

HIGH_DRAW_RISK

xG gap -0.44, combined xG 2.18 - evenly matched, low-scoring, elevated Draw risk

Win probability 1X2

Grindavik (H) 25.0%

ODDS 4.40 · IMPLIED 22.7% EV +6.0%

Draw 28.1%

ODDS 4.20 · IMPLIED 23.8% EV +10.8%

Throttur Reykjavik (A) 46.8%

ODDS 1.57 · IMPLIED 63.7% EV -26.5%

Match Preview & Prediction

Grindavik face Throttur Reykjavik in Iceland - 1. Deild on Thursday, August 13, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Grindavik a 25% chance, the draw 28% and Throttur Reykjavik 47%, so Throttur Reykjavik are favoured to win. Expected goals are 0.9 for Grindavik and 1.3 for Throttur Reykjavik (2.2 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 50% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 49% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Grindavik are averaging 1.25 points per game versus 1.75 for Throttur Reykjavik.

Grindavik vs Throttur Reykjavik Prediction— Iceland - 1. Deild

Match Preview & Prediction

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