Today / Iceland - 1. Deild / Ægir vs Völsungur

Ægir vs Völsungur Prediction— Iceland - 1. Deild

Matchday 18 ·Thursday, August 13, 2026, 18:00

Ægir

PPG 0.38 · HOME

UPCOMING

Völsungur

PPG 0.38 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 3.7 puts the goal expectation well above the line. Model probability 67.3% vs bookmaker-implied 74.1%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-02.5%0-14.1%0-23.4%0-31.8%0-4+1.1%1 1-05.2%1-18.4%1-26.9%1-33.8%1-4+2.2%2 2-05.3%2-18.6%2-27.0%2-33.8%2-4+2.3%3 3-03.6%3-15.9%3-24.8%3-32.6%3-4+1.5%4+ 4+-02.9%4+-14.8%4+-23.9%4+-32.1%4+-4+1.3%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 46.5% 45.5% 2.20 +2.3%

Draw 21.9% 26.0% 3.85 -9.4%

Away win 31.6% 38.5% 2.60 -17.8%

Over 2.5 67.3% 74.1% 1.35 -9.1%

Over 3.5 43.0% 54.1% 1.85 -20.4%

BTTS 63.3% 76.9% 1.30 -17.7%

Home O1.5 57.3% 61.7% 1.62 -7.2%

Away O1.5 47.7% 57.8% 1.73 -17.5%

League track record ↗

Based on 46 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 44%

O2.5 65%

BTTS 59%

Score Hit 28%

ROI 8.8%

Bet Hit 67%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 1 57%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)2.0 xG (away)1.6 BTTS prob63.3%

H 46% / xG 2.0-1.6 / O2.5 67% / BTTS 63%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 8.4%

#2 2–1 8.6%

#3 2–2 7.0%

#4 1–2 6.9%

#5 3–1 5.9%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Ægir2.0

Völsungur1.6

COMBINED 3.7 xG → O2.5 PROB 67.3% · O3.5 PROB 43.0%

Form & verdict PPG

ÆGIR · PPG 0.38

VÖLSUNGUR · PPG 0.38

✓ FAIR - Balanced matchup, limited value | No clear value

60%

BALANCED

xG gap +0.41 - no reliable favorite, elevated draw risk

Win probability 1X2

Ægir (H) 46.5%

ODDS 2.20 · IMPLIED 45.5% EV +2.3%

Draw 21.9%

ODDS 3.85 · IMPLIED 26.0% EV -9.4%

Völsungur (A) 31.6%

ODDS 2.60 · IMPLIED 38.5% EV -17.8%

Match Preview & Prediction

Ægir face Völsungur in Iceland - 1. Deild on Thursday, August 13, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Ægir a 47% chance, the draw 22% and Völsungur 32%, so Ægir are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.0 for Ægir and 1.6 for Völsungur (3.7 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 67% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 63% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Ægir are averaging 0.38 points per game versus 0.38 for Völsungur. The best value bet our model finds is H/O25, with an expected value of +5.4%.

Ægir vs Völsungur Prediction— Iceland - 1. Deild

Match Preview & Prediction

More Iceland - 1. Deild Predictions