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Fylkir vs Afturelding Prediction— Iceland - 1. Deild

Matchday 18 ·Thursday, August 13, 2026, 19:15

Fylkir

PPG 2.25 · HOME

UPCOMING

Afturelding

PPG 1.88 · AWAY

// Model verdict

BTTS

Model probability 69.4% vs bookmaker-implied 73.5%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-01.9%0-13.4%0-23.0%0-31.8%0-4+1.2%1 1-04.1%1-17.3%1-26.6%1-33.9%1-4+2.6%2 2-04.5%2-18.0%2-27.2%2-34.3%2-4+2.8%3 3-03.3%3-15.9%3-25.2%3-33.1%3-4+2.1%4+ 4+-03.0%4+-15.3%4+-24.8%4+-32.8%4+-4+1.9%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 46.1% 47.6% 2.10 -3.2%

Draw 21.6% 26.3% 3.80 -10.8%

Away win 32.2% 36.4% 2.75 -11.5%

Over 2.5 67.4% 70.4% 1.42 -4.3%

Over 3.5 47.2% 47.6% 2.10 -0.9%

BTTS 69.4% 73.5% 1.36 -5.6%

Home O1.5 63.0% 59.9% 1.67 +5.2%

Away O1.5 47.7% 51.8% 1.93 -7.9%

League track record ↗

Based on 46 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 44%

O2.5 65%

BTTS 59%

Score Hit 28%

ROI 8.8%

Bet Hit 67%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 1 64%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)2.2 xG (away)1.8 BTTS prob69.4%

H 46% / xG 2.2-1.8 / O2.5 67% / BTTS 69%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 7.3%

#2 2–1 8.0%

#3 2–2 7.2%

#4 1–2 6.6%

#5 3–1 5.9%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Fylkir2.2

Afturelding1.8

COMBINED 4.0 xG → O2.5 PROB 67.4% · O3.5 PROB 47.2%

Form & verdict PPG

FYLKIR · PPG 2.25

AFTURELDING · PPG 1.88

✓ FAIR - Balanced matchup, limited value | No clear value

60%

BALANCED

xG gap +0.41 - no reliable favorite, elevated draw risk

Win probability 1X2

Fylkir (H) 46.1%

ODDS 2.10 · IMPLIED 47.6% EV -3.2%

Draw 21.6%

ODDS 3.80 · IMPLIED 26.3% EV -10.8%

Afturelding (A) 32.2%

ODDS 2.75 · IMPLIED 36.4% EV -11.5%

Match Preview & Prediction

Fylkir face Afturelding in Iceland - 1. Deild on Thursday, August 13, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Fylkir a 46% chance, the draw 22% and Afturelding 32%, so Fylkir are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.2 for Fylkir and 1.8 for Afturelding (4.0 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 67% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 69% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Fylkir are averaging 2.25 points per game versus 1.88 for Afturelding. The best value bet our model finds is HomeO15, with an expected value of +5.2%.

Fylkir vs Afturelding Prediction— Iceland - 1. Deild

Match Preview & Prediction

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