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Leiknir R. vs Ægir Prediction— Iceland - 1. Deild

Matchday 19 ·Monday, August 17, 2026, 18:00

Leiknir R.

PPG 1.56 · HOME

UPCOMING

Ægir

PPG 0.56 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 3.4 puts the goal expectation well above the line. Model probability 67.3% vs bookmaker-implied 73.5%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-03.2%0-13.0%0-21.4%0-30.5%0-4+0.1%1 1-08.0%1-17.6%1-23.6%1-31.1%1-4+0.3%2 2-010.0%2-19.4%2-24.5%2-31.4%2-4+0.4%3 3-08.3%3-17.8%3-23.7%3-31.2%3-4+0.3%4+ 4+-09.3%4+-18.8%4+-24.2%4+-31.3%4+-4+0.4%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 67.0% 56.5% 1.77 +18.6%

Draw 17.6% 25.0% 4.00 -17.8%

Away win 15.4% 28.6% 3.50 -27.7%

Over 2.5 67.3% 73.5% 1.36 -8.5%

Over 3.5 43.0% 51.8% 1.93 -17.0%

BTTS 61.1% 73.5% 1.36 -16.9%

Home O1.5 63.4% 67.6% 1.48 -6.2%

Away O1.5 26.2% 47.6% 2.10 -27.0%

League track record ↗

Based on 52 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 42%

O2.5 64%

BTTS 58%

Score Hit 27%

ROI -2.1%

Bet Hit 60%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 1 66%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)2.5 xG (away)0.9 BTTS prob61.1%

H 67% / xG 2.5-0.9 / O2.5 67% / BTTS 61%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 2–0 10.0%

#2 2–1 9.4%

#3 1–1 7.6%

#4 3–0 8.3%

#5 3–1 7.8%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Leiknir R.2.5

Ægir0.9

COMBINED 3.4 xG → O2.5 PROB 67.3% · O3.5 PROB 43.0%

Form & verdict PPG

LEIKNIR R. · PPG 1.56

ÆGIR · PPG 0.56

🎯 STRONG BET - PPG + Poisson + EV aligned

98%

STRONG_HOME

xG gap +1.54 for Home, form 1.56 vs 0.56 - Strong consensus

Win probability 1X2

Leiknir R. (H) 67.0%

ODDS 1.77 · IMPLIED 56.5% EV +18.6%

Draw 17.6%

ODDS 4.00 · IMPLIED 25.0% EV -17.8%

Ægir (A) 15.4%

ODDS 3.50 · IMPLIED 28.6% EV -27.7%

Match Preview & Prediction

Leiknir R. face Ægir in Iceland - 1. Deild on Monday, August 17, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Leiknir R. a 67% chance, the draw 18% and Ægir 15%, so Leiknir R. are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.5 for Leiknir R. and 0.9 for Ægir (3.4 total). The most likely scoreline is 2-0. There is a 67% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 61% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Leiknir R. are averaging 1.56 points per game versus 0.56 for Ægir. The best value bet our model finds is H/O25, with an expected value of +4.8%.

Leiknir R. vs Ægir Prediction— Iceland - 1. Deild

Match Preview & Prediction

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