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Grotta vs Njardvik Prediction— Iceland - 1. Deild

Matchday 18 ·Thursday, August 13, 2026, 19:15

Grotta

PPG 1.25 · HOME

UPCOMING

Njardvik

PPG 0.88 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 3.2 puts the goal expectation well above the line. Model probability 63.1% vs bookmaker-implied 73.5%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-03.9%0-15.0%0-23.2%0-31.4%0-4+0.6%1 1-07.7%1-19.8%1-26.3%1-32.7%1-4+1.1%2 2-07.5%2-19.6%2-26.2%2-32.6%2-4+1.1%3 3-04.9%3-16.3%3-24.0%3-31.7%3-4+0.7%4+ 4+-03.8%4+-14.8%4+-23.1%4+-31.3%4+-4+0.6%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 53.4% 31.3% 3.20 +70.9%

Draw 22.6% 25.0% 4.00 -5.8%

Away win 23.9% 54.1% 1.85 -33.5%

Over 2.5 63.1% 73.5% 1.36 -14.2%

Over 3.5 38.8% 51.8% 1.93 -25.1%

BTTS 61.6% 74.1% 1.35 -16.8%

Home O1.5 54.6% 50.0% 2.00 +9.2%

Away O1.5 36.6% 66.7% 1.50 -45.1%

League track record ↗

Based on 46 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 44%

O2.5 65%

BTTS 59%

Score Hit 28%

ROI 8.8%

Bet Hit 67%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 1 51%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)2.0 xG (away)1.3 BTTS prob61.6%

H 53% / xG 2.0-1.3 / O2.5 63% / BTTS 62%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 9.8%

#2 2–1 9.6%

#3 2–0 7.5%

#4 3–1 6.3%

#5 1–2 6.3%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Grotta2.0

Njardvik1.3

COMBINED 3.2 xG → O2.5 PROB 63.1% · O3.5 PROB 38.8%

Form & verdict PPG

GROTTA · PPG 1.25

NJARDVIK · PPG 0.88

✓ SOLID - Moderate edge + strong value

75%

MODERATE_HOME

xG gap +0.68 - moderate Home edge

Win probability 1X2

Grotta (H) 53.4%

ODDS 3.20 · IMPLIED 31.3% EV +70.9%

Draw 22.6%

ODDS 4.00 · IMPLIED 25.0% EV -5.8%

Njardvik (A) 23.9%

ODDS 1.85 · IMPLIED 54.1% EV -33.5%

Match Preview & Prediction

Grotta face Njardvik in Iceland - 1. Deild on Thursday, August 13, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Grotta a 53% chance, the draw 23% and Njardvik 24%, so Grotta are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.0 for Grotta and 1.3 for Njardvik (3.2 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 63% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 62% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Grotta are averaging 1.25 points per game versus 0.88 for Njardvik. The best value bet our model finds is H/O25, with an expected value of +45.7%.

Grotta vs Njardvik Prediction— Iceland - 1. Deild

Match Preview & Prediction

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