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FH hafnarfjordur vs Vikingur Reykjavik Prediction— Iceland - Úrvalsdeild

Matchday 19 ·Sunday, August 16, 2026, 18:00

FH hafnarfjordur

PPG 0.89 · HOME

UPCOMING

Vikingur Reykjavik

PPG 2.44 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Away Over 1.5

Model probability 64.9% vs bookmaker-implied 70.4%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-04.2%0-19.6%0-211.1%0-38.6%0-4+8.6%1 1-03.6%1-18.3%1-29.6%1-37.4%1-4+7.4%2 2-01.6%2-13.6%2-24.2%2-33.2%2-4+3.2%3 3-00.4%3-11.0%3-21.2%3-30.9%3-4+0.9%4+ 4+-00.1%4+-10.3%4+-20.3%4+-30.2%4+-4+0.2%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 16.0% 21.1% 4.75 -14.4%

Draw 22.4% 23.8% 4.20 -3.5%

Away win 61.7% 65.4% 1.53 -5.6%

Over 2.5 60.6% 70.4% 1.42 -14.0%

Over 3.5 37.8% 47.6% 2.10 -20.6%

BTTS 54.5% 69.0% 1.45 -21.0%

Home O1.5 30.2% 37.7% 2.65 -20.0%

Away O1.5 64.9% 70.4% 1.42 -7.8%

League track record ↗

Based on 44 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 57%

O2.5 64%

BTTS 66%

Score Hit 27%

ROI -12.1%

Bet Hit 64%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 3 46%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)0.9 xG (away)2.3 BTTS prob54.5%

A 62% / xG 0.9-2.3 / O2.5 61% / BTTS 55%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 0–2 11.1%

#2 1–2 9.6%

#3 1–1 8.3%

#4 0–3 8.6%

#5 0–1 9.6%

Expected goals MODEL xG

FH hafnarfjordur0.9

Vikingur Reykjavik2.3

COMBINED 3.2 xG → O2.5 PROB 60.6% · O3.5 PROB 37.8%

Form & verdict PPG

FH HAFNARFJORDUR · PPG 0.89

VIKINGUR REYKJAVIK · PPG 2.44

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ⚠ RISKY - Form concerns with home team | No clear value

45%

DANGER

xG gap -1.45 - moderate Away edge

Win probability 1X2

FH hafnarfjordur (H) 16.0%

ODDS 4.75 · IMPLIED 21.1% EV -14.4%

Draw 22.4%

ODDS 4.20 · IMPLIED 23.8% EV -3.5%

Vikingur Reykjavik (A) 61.7%

ODDS 1.53 · IMPLIED 65.4% EV -5.6%

Match Preview & Prediction

FH hafnarfjordur face Vikingur Reykjavik in Iceland - Úrvalsdeild on Sunday, August 16, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives FH hafnarfjordur a 16% chance, the draw 22% and Vikingur Reykjavik 62%, so Vikingur Reykjavik are favoured to win. Expected goals are 0.9 for FH hafnarfjordur and 2.3 for Vikingur Reykjavik (3.2 total). The most likely scoreline is 0-2. There is a 61% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 55% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, FH hafnarfjordur are averaging 0.89 points per game versus 2.44 for Vikingur Reykjavik.

FH hafnarfjordur vs Vikingur Reykjavik Prediction— Iceland - Úrvalsdeild

Match Preview & Prediction

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