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Thor Akureyri vs Keflavik Prediction— Iceland - Úrvalsdeild

Matchday 19 ·Saturday, August 15, 2026, 17:00

Thor Akureyri

PPG 1.11 · HOME

UPCOMING

Keflavik

PPG 0.78 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 3.6 puts the goal expectation well above the line. Model probability 65.0% vs bookmaker-implied 76.9%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-02.7%0-15.2%0-24.9%0-33.1%0-4+2.3%1 1-04.6%1-18.8%1-28.4%1-35.3%1-4+3.9%2 2-04.0%2-17.5%2-27.1%2-34.5%2-4+3.3%3 3-02.3%3-14.3%3-24.1%3-32.6%3-4+1.9%4+ 4+-01.4%4+-12.7%4+-22.5%4+-31.6%4+-4+1.2%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 43.6% 34.5% 2.90 +26.4%

Draw 22.2% 25.0% 4.00 -6.7%

Away win 34.2% 50.0% 2.00 -31.6%

Over 2.5 65.0% 76.9% 1.30 -15.5%

Over 3.5 42.9% 55.6% 1.80 -22.8%

BTTS 63.3% 76.9% 1.30 -17.7%

Home O1.5 49.2% 55.6% 1.80 -11.4%

Away O1.5 53.8% 66.7% 1.50 -19.3%

League track record ↗

Based on 44 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 57%

O2.5 64%

BTTS 66%

Score Hit 27%

ROI -12.1%

Bet Hit 64%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 3 51%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)1.7 xG (away)1.9 BTTS prob63.3%

A 34% / xG 1.7-1.9 / O2.5 65% / BTTS 63%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 8.8%

#2 1–2 8.4%

#3 2–1 7.5%

#4 2–2 7.1%

#5 1–3 5.3%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Thor Akureyri1.7

Keflavik1.9

COMBINED 3.6 xG → O2.5 PROB 65.0% · O3.5 PROB 42.9%

Form & verdict PPG

THOR AKUREYRI · PPG 1.11

KEFLAVIK · PPG 0.78

✓ INTERESTING - Balanced match with high-value opportunity

70%

BALANCED

xG gap -0.19 - no reliable favorite, elevated draw risk

Win probability 1X2

Thor Akureyri (H) 43.6%

ODDS 2.90 · IMPLIED 34.5% EV +26.4%

Draw 22.2%

ODDS 4.00 · IMPLIED 25.0% EV -6.7%

Keflavik (A) 34.2%

ODDS 2.00 · IMPLIED 50.0% EV -31.6%

Match Preview & Prediction

Thor Akureyri face Keflavik in Iceland - Úrvalsdeild on Saturday, August 15, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Thor Akureyri a 44% chance, the draw 22% and Keflavik 34%, so Thor Akureyri are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.7 for Thor Akureyri and 1.9 for Keflavik (3.6 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 65% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 63% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Thor Akureyri are averaging 1.11 points per game versus 0.78 for Keflavik. The best value bet our model finds is H/O25, with an expected value of +4.0%.

Thor Akureyri vs Keflavik Prediction— Iceland - Úrvalsdeild

Match Preview & Prediction

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