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IBV Vestmannaeyjar vs IA Akranes Prediction— Iceland - Úrvalsdeild

Matchday 19 ·Sunday, August 16, 2026, 18:00

IBV Vestmannaeyjar

PPG 1.22 · HOME

UPCOMING

IA Akranes

PPG 1.11 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 3.7 puts the goal expectation well above the line. Model probability 67.3% vs bookmaker-implied 70.4%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-02.5%0-14.1%0-23.3%0-31.8%0-4+1.0%1 1-05.2%1-18.4%1-26.8%1-33.6%1-4+2.1%2 2-05.4%2-18.7%2-27.0%2-33.8%2-4+2.2%3 3-03.7%3-16.0%3-24.8%3-32.6%3-4+1.5%4+ 4+-03.1%4+-15.0%4+-24.0%4+-32.2%4+-4+1.2%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 48.9% 42.9% 2.33 +13.9%

Draw 22.2% 27.0% 3.70 -10.7%

Away win 28.9% 40.0% 2.50 -16.7%

Over 2.5 67.3% 70.4% 1.42 -4.4%

Over 3.5 45.3% 47.6% 2.10 -4.9%

BTTS 63.3% 73.5% 1.36 -13.9%

Home O1.5 59.8% 57.1% 1.75 +4.7%

Away O1.5 47.7% 55.6% 1.80 -14.1%

League track record ↗

Based on 44 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 57%

O2.5 64%

BTTS 66%

Score Hit 27%

ROI -12.1%

Bet Hit 64%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 1 59%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)2.1 xG (away)1.6 BTTS prob63.3%

H 49% / xG 2.1-1.6 / O2.5 67% / BTTS 63%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 8.4%

#2 2–1 8.7%

#3 2–2 7.0%

#4 1–2 6.8%

#5 3–1 6.0%

Expected goals MODEL xG

IBV Vestmannaeyjar2.1

IA Akranes1.6

COMBINED 3.7 xG → O2.5 PROB 67.3% · O3.5 PROB 45.3%

Form & verdict PPG

IBV VESTMANNAEYJAR · PPG 1.22

IA AKRANES · PPG 1.11

✓ FAIR - Balanced matchup, limited value

60%

BALANCED

xG gap +0.46 - no reliable favorite, elevated draw risk

Win probability 1X2

IBV Vestmannaeyjar (H) 48.9%

ODDS 2.33 · IMPLIED 42.9% EV +13.9%

Draw 22.2%

ODDS 3.70 · IMPLIED 27.0% EV -10.7%

IA Akranes (A) 28.9%

ODDS 2.50 · IMPLIED 40.0% EV -16.7%

Match Preview & Prediction

IBV Vestmannaeyjar face IA Akranes in Iceland - Úrvalsdeild on Sunday, August 16, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives IBV Vestmannaeyjar a 49% chance, the draw 22% and IA Akranes 29%, so IBV Vestmannaeyjar are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.1 for IBV Vestmannaeyjar and 1.6 for IA Akranes (3.7 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 67% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 63% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, IBV Vestmannaeyjar are averaging 1.22 points per game versus 1.11 for IA Akranes. The best value bet our model finds is H/O25, with an expected value of +12.7%.

IBV Vestmannaeyjar vs IA Akranes Prediction— Iceland - Úrvalsdeild

Match Preview & Prediction

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