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Cherno More Varna vs Ludogorets Prediction— Bulgaria - First League

Matchday 4 ·Sunday, August 9, 2026, 16:00

Cherno More Varna

PPG 1.12 · HOME

2 – 3

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · AWAY

Ludogorets

PPG 1.98 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Away

Model probability 59.6% vs bookmaker-implied 59.9%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-011.7%0-117.9%0-213.8%0-37.1%0-4+3.8%1 1-07.1%1-111.0%1-28.4%1-34.3%1-4+2.3%2 2-02.2%2-13.3%2-22.6%2-31.3%2-4+0.7%3 3-00.4%3-10.7%3-20.5%3-30.3%3-4+0.1%4+ 4+-00.1%4+-10.1%4+-20.1%4+-30.0%4+-4+0.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 14.5% 21.7% 4.60 -20.0%

Draw 25.9% 28.2% 3.55 -4.8%

Away win 59.6% 59.9% 1.67 -0.5%

Over 2.5 45.9% 51.8% 1.93 -11.4%

Over 3.5 25.8% 29.9% 3.35 -8.1%

BTTS 47.6% 54.6% 1.83 -12.9%

Home O1.5 32.1% 27.4% 3.65 +17.2%

Away O1.5 48.2% 55.6% 1.80 -13.2%

League track record ↗

Based on 18 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 61%

O2.5 44%

BTTS 56%

Score Hit 39%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

0 – 2 40%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 2-3

xG (home)0.6 xG (away)1.5 BTTS prob47.6%

A 60% / xG 0.6-1.5 / U2.5 46% / NoBTTS 48%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 0–1 17.9%

#2 0–2 13.8%

#3 0–0 11.7%

#4 1–1 11.0%

#5 1–2 8.4%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Cherno More Varna0.6

Ludogorets1.5

COMBINED 2.1 xG → O2.5 PROB 45.9% · O3.5 PROB 25.8%

Form & verdict PPG

CHERNO MORE VARNA · PPG 1.12

LUDOGORETS · PPG 1.98

⚠ RISKY - Form concerns with home team | No clear value

65%

DANGER

xG gap -0.93 - moderate Away edge

Win probability 1X2

Cherno More Varna (H) 14.5%

ODDS 4.60 · IMPLIED 21.7% EV -20.0%

Draw 25.9%

ODDS 3.55 · IMPLIED 28.2% EV -4.8%

Ludogorets (A) 59.6%

ODDS 1.67 · IMPLIED 59.9% EV -0.5%

Match Preview & Prediction

Cherno More Varna face Ludogorets in Bulgaria - First League on Sunday, August 9, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Cherno More Varna a 14% chance, the draw 26% and Ludogorets 60%, so Ludogorets are favoured to win. Expected goals are 0.6 for Cherno More Varna and 1.5 for Ludogorets (2.1 total). The most likely scoreline is 0-1. There is a 46% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 48% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Cherno More Varna are averaging 1.12 points per game versus 1.98 for Ludogorets. The best value bet our model finds is HomeO15, with an expected value of +17.2%. This match finished 2-3.

Cherno More Varna vs Ludogorets Prediction— Bulgaria - First League

Match Preview & Prediction

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