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Botev Plovdiv vs Spartak Varna Prediction— Bulgaria - First League

Matchday 4 ·Monday, August 10, 2026, 18:15

Botev Plovdiv

PPG 1.59 · HOME

3 – 2

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · BTTS

Spartak Varna

PPG 1.52 · AWAY

// Model verdict

BTTS

Model probability 54.2% vs bookmaker-implied 55.6%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-06.4%0-18.8%0-26.0%0-32.8%0-4+1.3%1 1-08.8%1-112.1%1-28.3%1-33.8%1-4+1.8%2 2-06.1%2-18.3%2-25.7%2-32.6%2-4+1.2%3 3-02.8%3-13.8%3-22.6%3-31.2%3-4+0.6%4+ 4+-01.3%4+-11.8%4+-21.2%4+-30.6%4+-4+0.3%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 37.6% 65.4% 1.53 -42.5%

Draw 27.2% 26.7% 3.75 +1.2%

Away win 35.2% 18.2% 5.50 +93.6%

Over 2.5 50.4% 56.5% 1.77 -10.8%

Over 3.5 30.0% 33.9% 2.95 -11.5%

BTTS 54.2% 55.6% 1.80 -2.4%

Home O1.5 37.9% 61.7% 1.62 -38.6%

Away O1.5 42.6% 26.7% 3.75 +59.8%

League track record ↗

Based on 18 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 61%

O2.5 44%

BTTS 56%

Score Hit 39%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 25%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 3-2

xG (home)1.4 xG (away)1.4 BTTS prob54.2%

H 38% / xG 1.4-1.4 / O2.5 50% / BTTS 54%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 12.1%

#2 2–1 8.3%

#3 1–2 8.3%

#4 0–0 6.4%

#5 1–0 8.8%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Botev Plovdiv1.4

Spartak Varna1.4

COMBINED 2.7 xG → O2.5 PROB 50.4% · O3.5 PROB 30.0%

Form & verdict PPG

BOTEV PLOVDIV · PPG 1.59

SPARTAK VARNA · PPG 1.52

✓ INTERESTING - Balanced match with high-value opportunity

70%

BALANCED

xG gap +0.00 - no reliable favorite, elevated draw risk

Win probability 1X2

Botev Plovdiv (H) 37.6%

ODDS 1.53 · IMPLIED 65.4% EV -42.5%

Draw 27.2%

ODDS 3.75 · IMPLIED 26.7% EV +1.2%

Spartak Varna (A) 35.2%

ODDS 5.50 · IMPLIED 18.2% EV +93.6%

Match Preview & Prediction

Botev Plovdiv face Spartak Varna in Bulgaria - First League on Monday, August 10, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Botev Plovdiv a 38% chance, the draw 27% and Spartak Varna 35%, so Botev Plovdiv are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.4 for Botev Plovdiv and 1.4 for Spartak Varna (2.7 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 50% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 54% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Botev Plovdiv are averaging 1.59 points per game versus 1.52 for Spartak Varna. The best value bet our model finds is A/O25, with an expected value of +81.4%. This match finished 3-2.

Botev Plovdiv vs Spartak Varna Prediction— Bulgaria - First League

Match Preview & Prediction

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