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Slavia Sofia vs Levski Sofia Prediction— Bulgaria - First League

Matchday 5 ·Saturday, August 15, 2026, 16:00

Slavia Sofia

PPG 1.37 · HOME

UPCOMING

Levski Sofia

PPG 1.99 · AWAY

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-013.4%0-115.4%0-28.9%0-33.4%0-4+1.3%1 1-011.5%1-113.3%1-27.6%1-32.9%1-4+1.1%2 2-05.0%2-15.7%2-23.3%2-31.3%2-4+0.5%3 3-01.4%3-11.6%3-20.9%3-30.4%3-4+0.1%4+ 4+-00.4%4+-10.4%4+-20.2%4+-30.1%4+-4+0.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 29.3% 14.3% 7.00 +63.1%

Draw 33.7% 25.0% 4.00 +34.8%

Away win 37.0% 71.4% 1.40 -48.2%

Over 2.5 37.0% 52.6% 1.90 -29.7%

Over 3.5 19.6% 30.8% 3.25 -21.8%

BTTS 47.7% 47.6% 2.10 +0.2%

Home O1.5 30.2% 16.7% 6.00 +81.2%

Away O1.5 34.7% 63.7% 1.57 -45.5%

League track record ↗

Based on 18 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 61%

O2.5 44%

BTTS 56%

Score Hit 39%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 1 53%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)0.9 xG (away)1.2 BTTS prob47.7%

D 34% / xG 0.9-1.2 / U2.5 37% / NoBTTS 48%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 0–0 13.4%

#2 1–1 13.3%

#3 0–1 15.4%

#4 1–0 11.5%

#5 0–2 8.9%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Slavia Sofia0.9

Levski Sofia1.2

COMBINED 2.0 xG → O2.5 PROB 37.0% · O3.5 PROB 19.6%

Form & verdict PPG

SLAVIA SOFIA · PPG 1.37

LEVSKI SOFIA · PPG 1.99

⚖ HIGH DRAW RISK - evenly matched, low-scoring expected

65%

HIGH_DRAW_RISK

xG gap -0.29, combined xG 2.01 - evenly matched, low-scoring, elevated Draw risk

Win probability 1X2

Slavia Sofia (H) 29.3%

ODDS 7.00 · IMPLIED 14.3% EV +63.1%

Draw 33.7%

ODDS 4.00 · IMPLIED 25.0% EV +34.8%

Levski Sofia (A) 37.0%

ODDS 1.40 · IMPLIED 71.4% EV -48.2%

Match Preview & Prediction

Slavia Sofia face Levski Sofia in Bulgaria - First League on Saturday, August 15, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Slavia Sofia a 29% chance, the draw 34% and Levski Sofia 37%, so Levski Sofia are favoured to win. Expected goals are 0.9 for Slavia Sofia and 1.2 for Levski Sofia (2.0 total). The most likely scoreline is 0-0. There is a 37% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 48% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Slavia Sofia are averaging 1.37 points per game versus 1.99 for Levski Sofia. The best value bet our model finds is HomeO15, with an expected value of +81.2%.

Slavia Sofia vs Levski Sofia Prediction— Bulgaria - First League

Match Preview & Prediction

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