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Botev Vratsa vs Slavia Sofia Prediction— Bulgaria - First League

Matchday 4 ·Monday, August 10, 2026, 16:00

Botev Vratsa

PPG 1.44 · HOME

0 – 3

FULL TIME

Slavia Sofia

PPG 0.85 · AWAY

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-017.1%0-112.4%0-24.5%0-31.1%0-4+0.2%1 1-017.8%1-112.9%1-24.7%1-31.1%1-4+0.2%2 2-09.3%2-16.7%2-22.4%2-30.6%2-4+0.1%3 3-03.2%3-12.3%3-20.8%3-30.2%3-4+0.0%4+ 4+-01.1%4+-10.8%4+-20.3%4+-30.1%4+-4+0.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 41.8% 52.4% 1.91 -20.2%

Draw 34.4% 30.8% 3.25 +11.8%

Away win 23.8% 27.4% 3.65 -7.9%

Over 2.5 34.2% 48.8% 2.05 -29.9%

Over 3.5 17.7% 27.0% 3.70 -20.7%

BTTS 44.6% 54.6% 1.83 -18.4%

Home O1.5 30.2% 47.6% 2.10 -36.6%

Away O1.5 17.2% 30.3% 3.30 -25.9%

League track record ↗

Based on 18 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 61%

O2.5 44%

BTTS 56%

Score Hit 39%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 0 39%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 0-3

xG (home)1.0 xG (away)0.7 BTTS prob44.6%

H 42% / xG 1.0-0.7 / U2.5 34% / NoBTTS 45%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 0–0 17.1%

#2 1–0 17.8%

#3 1–1 12.9%

#4 0–1 12.4%

#5 2–0 9.3%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Botev Vratsa1.0

Slavia Sofia0.7

COMBINED 1.8 xG → O2.5 PROB 34.2% · O3.5 PROB 17.7%

Form & verdict PPG

BOTEV VRATSA · PPG 1.44

SLAVIA SOFIA · PPG 0.85

🎯 STRONG BET - Draw signal + Draw value aligned

80%

HIGH_DRAW_RISK

xG gap +0.32, combined xG 1.77 - evenly matched, low-scoring, elevated Draw risk

Win probability 1X2

Botev Vratsa (H) 41.8%

ODDS 1.91 · IMPLIED 52.4% EV -20.2%

Draw 34.4%

ODDS 3.25 · IMPLIED 30.8% EV +11.8%

Slavia Sofia (A) 23.8%

ODDS 3.65 · IMPLIED 27.4% EV -7.9%

Match Preview & Prediction

Botev Vratsa face Slavia Sofia in Bulgaria - First League on Monday, August 10, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Botev Vratsa a 42% chance, the draw 34% and Slavia Sofia 24%, so Botev Vratsa are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.0 for Botev Vratsa and 0.7 for Slavia Sofia (1.8 total). The most likely scoreline is 0-0. There is a 34% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 45% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Botev Vratsa are averaging 1.44 points per game versus 0.85 for Slavia Sofia. The best value bet our model finds is A/O25, with an expected value of +0.5%. This match finished 0-3.

Botev Vratsa vs Slavia Sofia Prediction— Bulgaria - First League

Match Preview & Prediction

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