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Lokomotiv Sofia vs CSKA 1948 Prediction— Bulgaria - First League

Matchday 4 ·Saturday, August 8, 2026, 16:00

Lokomotiv Sofia

PPG 1.09 · HOME

1 – 3

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · BTTS

CSKA 1948

PPG 1.54 · AWAY

// Model verdict

BTTS

Model probability 54.6% vs bookmaker-implied 59.9%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-05.7%0-18.5%0-26.4%0-33.2%0-4+1.7%1 1-07.8%1-111.7%1-28.8%1-34.4%1-4+2.3%2 2-05.3%2-18.0%2-26.0%2-33.0%2-4+1.6%3 3-02.4%3-13.6%3-22.7%3-31.4%3-4+0.7%4+ 4+-01.1%4+-11.7%4+-21.3%4+-30.6%4+-4+0.3%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 36.9% 37.0% 2.70 -0.4%

Draw 27.9% 31.3% 3.20 -6.4%

Away win 35.2% 41.7% 2.40 -15.5%

Over 2.5 53.4% 51.8% 1.93 +3.1%

Over 3.5 32.3% 30.3% 3.30 +6.6%

BTTS 54.6% 59.9% 1.67 -8.8%

Home O1.5 37.4% 40.8% 2.45 -8.4%

Away O1.5 47.4% 43.5% 2.30 +9.0%

League track record ↗

Based on 18 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 61%

O2.5 44%

BTTS 56%

Score Hit 39%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 2 31%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 1-3

xG (home)1.4 xG (away)1.5 BTTS prob54.6%

A 35% / xG 1.4-1.5 / O2.5 53% / BTTS 55%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 11.7%

#2 1–2 8.8%

#3 2–1 8.0%

#4 0–0 5.7%

#5 0–1 8.5%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Lokomotiv Sofia1.4

CSKA 19481.5

COMBINED 2.9 xG → O2.5 PROB 53.4% · O3.5 PROB 32.3%

Form & verdict PPG

LOKOMOTIV SOFIA · PPG 1.09

CSKA 1948 · PPG 1.54

✓ FAIR - Balanced matchup, limited value | No clear value

60%

BALANCED

xG gap -0.14 - no reliable favorite, elevated draw risk

Win probability 1X2

Lokomotiv Sofia (H) 36.9%

ODDS 2.70 · IMPLIED 37.0% EV -0.4%

Draw 27.9%

ODDS 3.20 · IMPLIED 31.3% EV -6.4%

CSKA 1948 (A) 35.2%

ODDS 2.40 · IMPLIED 41.7% EV -15.5%

Match Preview & Prediction

Lokomotiv Sofia face CSKA 1948 in Bulgaria - First League on Saturday, August 8, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Lokomotiv Sofia a 37% chance, the draw 28% and CSKA 1948 35%, so Lokomotiv Sofia are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.4 for Lokomotiv Sofia and 1.5 for CSKA 1948 (2.9 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 53% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 55% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Lokomotiv Sofia are averaging 1.09 points per game versus 1.54 for CSKA 1948. The best value bet our model finds is H/O25, with an expected value of +14.1%. This match finished 1-3.

Lokomotiv Sofia vs CSKA 1948 Prediction— Bulgaria - First League

Match Preview & Prediction

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