Today / Bulgaria - First League / Ludogorets vs Botev Plovdiv

Ludogorets vs Botev Plovdiv Prediction— Bulgaria - First League

Matchday 5 ·Saturday, August 15, 2026, 18:15

Ludogorets

PPG 2.14 · HOME

UPCOMING

Botev Plovdiv

PPG 1.11 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Home

Model probability 55.1% vs bookmaker-implied 64.5%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-05.7%0-14.9%0-22.1%0-30.6%0-4+0.2%1 1-011.4%1-19.9%1-24.2%1-31.2%1-4+0.3%2 2-011.4%2-19.9%2-24.2%2-31.2%2-4+0.3%3 3-07.6%3-16.6%3-22.8%3-30.8%3-4+0.2%4+ 4+-06.0%4+-15.2%4+-22.2%4+-30.6%4+-4+0.2%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 55.1% 64.5% 1.55 -14.6%

Draw 22.9% 25.0% 4.00 -5.0%

Away win 22.0% 20.0% 5.00 +6.0%

Over 2.5 53.7% 60.6% 1.65 -11.4%

Over 3.5 31.8% 38.5% 2.60 -17.3%

BTTS 53.1% 59.9% 1.67 -11.3%

Home O1.5 54.6% 64.5% 1.55 -15.4%

Away O1.5 22.0% 30.8% 3.25 -17.1%

League track record ↗

Based on 18 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 61%

O2.5 44%

BTTS 56%

Score Hit 39%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 41%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)2.0 xG (away)0.9 BTTS prob53.1%

H 55% / xG 2.0-0.9 / O2.5 54% / BTTS 53%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 2–0 11.4%

#2 1–1 9.9%

#3 1–0 11.4%

#4 2–1 9.9%

#5 3–0 7.6%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Ludogorets2.0

Botev Plovdiv0.9

COMBINED 2.9 xG → O2.5 PROB 53.7% · O3.5 PROB 31.8%

Form & verdict PPG

LUDOGORETS · PPG 2.14

BOTEV PLOVDIV · PPG 1.11

✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage

75%

MODERATE_HOME

xG gap +1.14 - moderate Home edge

Win probability 1X2

Ludogorets (H) 55.1%

ODDS 1.55 · IMPLIED 64.5% EV -14.6%

Draw 22.9%

ODDS 4.00 · IMPLIED 25.0% EV -5.0%

Botev Plovdiv (A) 22.0%

ODDS 5.00 · IMPLIED 20.0% EV +6.0%

Match Preview & Prediction

Ludogorets face Botev Plovdiv in Bulgaria - First League on Saturday, August 15, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Ludogorets a 55% chance, the draw 23% and Botev Plovdiv 22%, so Ludogorets are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.0 for Ludogorets and 0.9 for Botev Plovdiv (2.9 total). The most likely scoreline is 2-0. There is a 54% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 53% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Ludogorets are averaging 2.14 points per game versus 1.11 for Botev Plovdiv.

Ludogorets vs Botev Plovdiv Prediction— Bulgaria - First League

Match Preview & Prediction

More Bulgaria - First League Predictions